Category Archives: Politics

The following is a rerun of a LB blog post from September 22, 2013, so when you consider this information, just ask yourself the question posed in the title:

Benghazi ARB report: Bird Cage Liner or Probing Investigation?

I posted my Syria plan ideas at the Small Wars Journal, under a piece from War on the Rocks, “A New Plan for the United States in Syria“, by Ben Jonsson which starts off with this shift in strategy:

“As the Obama administration rethinks its Syria strategy, it should start by redefining U.S. interests in the face of an increasingly fractured Syrian conflict and adopting a new strategy that seeks to immediately reduce the level of violence by enforcing a pause on offensive operations by all sides in Syria.”

That goal is lofty, but at this point there’s nothing to induce that Syrian/Russian/Iranian alliance nor the assorted Syrian rebel groups to agree to a ceasefire.  I wrote my plan in the comments, it’s a repeat, so just skip it if you’ve been reading my posts the last couple weeks:

libertybelle October 20, 2015 – 12:08pm

The US calling for a ceasefire will fall on deaf ears at this point. I believe we should be formulating a plan to attack ISIS from the east, as the Syrian/Russian/Iranian alliance moves eastward from western Syria. We should discuss our plan to roll back ISIS with our allies and the Russian led alliance and while we should not become part of the Russian alliance, we should maintain open dialogue with Putin on our aims. It’s imperative that we talk to Putin, but the US must maintain total control over our plan. We should emphasize the urgency of getting to a ceasefire in Syria quickly with the more “moderate” Syrian rebels and the US should work with Putin to insure that safe zones can quickly be set up, with the aid of the international community, to protect civilians and those who put down their arms. Pouring more arms in to “moderate Syrians” will prolong the carnage.

We must recognize that Assad is a second tier problem compared to ISIS. If a “Russian-friendly” regime is in the wings to replace Assad, then Putin may be willing to let the good folks in Brussels deal with Assad. Syria has been a Russian client-state for decades and we lose nothing if a Russian-friendly government replaces Assad, but we will lose a great deal if ISIS fills a power vacuum should Assad fall first.

If we demonstrate an ability to implement a plan to work with forces in Iraq to really tackle ISIS, many of our traditional allies may prefer to align with the US rather than the Russian/Iranian/Syrian alliance, and this would counter the growing Iranian influence. We might be able to restore American credibility in the process too, which would aid us long-term. This plan would require deft diplomacy, speedy action and a willingness to use adequate military force to a clearly defined mission – defeat the Islamic State.

A pitfall to avoid would be to invest too many American boots on the ground and end up in an occupying mode in Iraq again, which would not help our long-term strategy in the region, which should be promoting REGIONAL STABILITY.

There was a 2014 paper in SSI by General Huba Wass de Czege ( http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Issues/Winter_… ),which had some ideas on how to prevent power vacuums as we progress, by relying on local and tribal leaders to create grassroots law and order as we learn and grow our capacity. We need to utilize new ideas and be open to change, while keeping in mind that as ISIS is rolled back, quickly establishing local security capacity is vital and since the “national government” has demonstrated no ability to do this, in addition to the ethnic divide between the national government and local population in ISIS territory, perhaps working with local leadership might work better. This is just an idea. There was July 2015 SSI paper by Dr. Robert E. Lamb,”Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building” (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Fragile…), which explains this common pitfall with international efforts at “nation-building”.

Expecting a ceasefire, absent any real US plan, especially with the US reputation at a low-ebb, will get us nowhere.

https://libertybellediaries.com/2015/10/08/my-plan-for-the-syria-mess-inc…

I believe this “ceasefire first” plan relies on magical thinking and a lot of glossing over the serious problems with our Bosnia efforts, which this author seemed to be unaware of or ignored. “Moderate Syrian” rebels will not agree to a ceasefire immediately and frankly, the Assad regime, in an existential struggle, likewise, at this point has no incentive to agree to one. It seems to me like a retread of the Bosnia Plan. My idea apparently seems too controversial for consideration – oh no, we can’t talk to Putin, but the only way to have a seat at the table or to counter the Russian/Iranian moves is to be relevant. Expecting the “international community” or in this case, the writer listed regional powers, to tighten the diplomatic screws enough to force compliance to a ceasefire seems unlikely to work, imho.

Posted two comments at National Review this morning at a piece titled, “Henry Kissinger: Is nuclear catastrophe inevitable?”, by James Lewis. Lewis dissects Kissinger’s op-ed from the Wall Street Journal and he ends up advocating:

“Bottom line: To avoid the “catastrophe” of a hot nuclear arms race in the Middle East, a practical alliance of the West with Russia might save the world.”

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/10/henry_kissinger_is_nuclear_catastrophe_inevitable.html#ixzz3p1FqT5Do
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

The idea of “REGIONAL STABILITY” as an American national security strategy sure seems to be taking hold…  As they say, what’s old becomes new again, all the time.

Here are my two comments, with the comment I responded to included – it’s some vintage stuff from the LB archives on Ukraine and a repeat of my plan from two weeks ago, so just skip it if you’ve read my previous posts:

feralcat Monday, October 19, 2015 2:27 AM

“Bottom line: To avoid the “catastrophe” of a hot nuclear arms race in the Middle East, a practical alliance of the West with Russia might save the world.”

Then at a minimum, neither Rubio, Fiorina nor Christie can ever become President as they all want to not only not even talk to the Russians but they want to shoot down their planes which would not be at all conducive to any kind of alliance, although it would go quite well with starting WWIII between America and Russia.

susanholly Monday, October 19, 2015 8:40 AM

They lost me on the foreign policy end. For two weeks I’ve been saying we should work with the Kurds and other groups in Iraq and come up with a real plan to roll back ISIS from the east as the Russian/Syrian/Iranian block pushes them them eastward from western Syria. We could coordinate with the Russians, while still retaining complete autonomy in our planning and decisions. We should have already consulted with the Russians and established a hot line to protect our pilots and avoid air accidents, like the Israelis did.

John McCreary, a foremost intelligence analyst who retired from DIA and now puts together KGS Nightwatch (a subscription report – https://www.kforcegov.com/solu… on Oct. 14th wrote:

“A significant divergence of policy and strategy between
the US and Russia is now apparent in Syria, Iraq and other Mid-eastern countries. The US strategy since 2011 mostly has focused on building up opposition entities to replace authoritarian governments with democratic systems. That has backfired by contributed to widespread instability; civil war and state fragmentation; legitimation of elected Islamist regimes and a backlash among the local populations in favor of stability, exemplified by political developments in Egypt.

Notable exceptions to this strategy are Afghanistan and Yemen. The
Afghanistan conflict predates the current US administration whose policy has been to reduce the US presence to an embassy by the end of 2016. In Yemen, the US tends to support the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, possibly because all the Gulf state air forces fly US combat aircraft.

The Russian strategy is built on supporting the governments in power in order to stabilize the existing order. Russia lacks the resources of the US, but President Putin has used his limited resources prudently and maneuvered deftly to advance Russian military presence and influence. Putin’s timing has been almost superb.

For old hands, the Russians and Americans appear to have reversed their traditional roles and swapped strategies and roles. Twenty-five years ago, the Soviets were destabilizing regions by supporting opposition elements in states friendly to the US. Now they are on the side of regional stability.“(Italics are mine)

I’ve been saying since Oct. 5th( http://libertybellediaries.com… , http://libertybellediaries.com…, http://libertybellediaries.com… ) Regional Stability should be our policy, imho, because there are worse things than despots and dictators – like anarchy and power vacuums, which seem to be our trademark end product in the ME these days.

and then:

KlugerRD Monday, October 19, 2015 8:20 AM

Kissinger is brilliant and also identifies what is the obvious.

Back when the Ukraine crisis began he wrote an op-ed about what Obama should do. It was not on ESPN so Obama never saw it,

Kissinger basically said that we should speak to Putin and find out what his interests are. Had we done that Crimea would never have happened. Ukraine was all about economics and their investment in gas pipelines throughout the country.

Putin is not a communist – he is a capitalist – and has spoken extensively about creating a EurAsian economic bloc to compete with the E.U. If you believe in free market capitalism there is nothing wrong with country’s seeking their own interests.

In regard to the Middle East, unless we wish to engage in a major regional war, dealing with Russia in the proper way is the answer to avoiding a nuclear war.

Obama is incompetent which is why we are where we are and will need a new President.

susanholly Monday, October 19, 2015 9:55 AM

Back during Ukraine, to see how the Russians saw things, they leaked an intercepted phone conversation in western media that was between our ambassador in Ukraine and Victoria Nuland at the State Dept, – discussing which opposition leader we wanted to put in Kiev ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/… ). To understand the Russian reasoning, just think how they interpreted the US trying to install a US puppet government in Kiev, that would isolate them from the their Navy’s warm-water port in Sevastopol in Crimea. ( http://libertybellediaries.com… ).

Putin told Charlie Rose to please make sure his comments were aired without editing in that CBS Charlie Rose interview, 9/27/15 ( http://www.charlierose.com/wat… , start about minute 14). Someone should pin down President Obama on our actions around the world, from Ukraine, Libya (Benghazi too), Iraq and what in the heck our strategy really is in regards to defeating ISIL. Putin laid out his position clearly. And to avoid major misunderstandings and escalating to war before actually talking is insane – we need to try to resolve conflicts by talking first, but instead we’ve got politicians all screaming for military escalation as our first diplomatic option.

Posted two more comments at National Review – WOW is all I can say, Charles Krauthammer’s lost on Syria – he’s still stuck on Assad must go and can’t see the forest for the trees.  He claims Russia is helping ISIS regain lost territory in Syria.  My comments are regurgitated from previous LB posts, so nothing new, but I am posting them here to keep a sort of log of my “commentary” and also a time stamp too.  I identified REGIONAL STABILITY as our strategic goal, loud and clear, since October 5, 2015.  Maybe, I should be Secretary of State, rofl….  Here are my two comments:

susanholly Friday, October 16, 2015 11:28 PM

The first Russian airstrikes, which the US media, WH and neocons wailed about hit targets north of Hama in a “rebel controlled area”. The Institute for the Study of War seems to be the only map source, since the State Dept., CNN and FOX all use their maps. I have screenshots of 3 ISW maps on my blog http://libertybellediaries.com… and http://libertybellediaries.com…. The one from CNN, one from the Kelly File and one from Chris Wallace on Oct 4th with GEN Keane describing the strikes -all 3 maps show a different story on that rebel area – especially the area with the most Russian strikes north of Hama – on one map it’s an ISIS controlled area, on another it’s a al Nusrah (Al Qaeda) area and on the Kelly file map it’s all yellow colored denoting “rebel forces” – which fit this narrative of “Syrian moderates”. The Long War Journal blog (http://www.longwarjournal.org/… keeps track of the Islamist goings on in the region and you can read through their archives on who is who in Syria and the advances of the Al Qaeda/ISIS groups, but also the ongoing collusion between so-called Free Syrian Army (Islamists) and the hardcore Islamists like ISIS – the line is very blurred and Mr. Krauthammer would likely not want to invite any of these so-called “Syrian moderates” to Sunday dinner… That rebel leader, who cut the heart out of a fallen foe and ate it, a couple years ago was from a “Syrian moderate” rebel group…

The best outcome would be for the US to plan to work with Sunni/Kurds in Iraq to attack ISIS from the east and encourage the “Syrian moderates” to agree to a ceasefire quickly and then focus on defeating ISIS and establishing safe zones in Syria. The goal should be to help restore order as quickly as possible. International pressure could then be brought to bear to deal with Assad. Assad is not the #1 concern – it’s the spread of ISIS, which will be assured if Assad falls first. The US has NO PLAN to deal with what happens if Assad falls.

To quote John McCreary, a foremost strategic analyst who worked for decades in the DIA and now publishes Nightwatch (https://www.kforcegov.com/solu… October 14, 2015:

“The Russian strategy is built on supporting the governments in power in order to stabilize the existing order. Russia lacks the resources of the US, but President Putin has used his limited resources prudently and maneuvered deftly to advance Russian military presence and influence. Putin’s timing has been almost superb”.

“For old hands, the Russians and Americans appear to have reversed
their traditional roles and swapped strategies and roles. Twenty-five years ago, the Soviets were destabilizing regions by supporting opposition elements in states friendly to the US. Now they are on the side of regional stability.“

Anyways, Henry Kissinger penned an excellent plan out of this mess: http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-… and it doesn’t involve arming “Syrian moderates”, thank God! It’s a plan to promote REGIONAL STABILITY…. Finally, a voice of reason in the strategic wilderness!!!

and then:

susanholly • 17 minutes ago

If Dr. Krauthammer wants to get on a soap box, how about urging the President to set up a hotline with the Russians in Syria immediately to avoid air accidents or escalation over Syria. Our pilots’ lives matter more than playing some male, ego-driven game of “chicken” in the skies over Syria, to no strategic purpose!!! The Israelis were smart enough to do that and here again, l’m quoting Nightwatch (https://www.kforcegov.com/solu… from October 15, 2015:

“Russia-Israel: On 15 October Russia’s defense ministry announced that its forces in Syria had set up a “hotline” with Israeli forces to avoid air accidents over Syria.

An “information-sharing” mechanism “has been established through a hotline between the Russian aviation command center at the Humaymim air base in Syria and a command post of the Israeli air force,” the ministry said in a statement. The statement also said that the two sides were undergoing training on how to cooperate.

Comment: The Israelis and Russians wasted little time in establishing a hot line. This is a prudent and practical measure that does not imply recognition or acceptance of the other sides’ political views. It recognizes the new conditions in which combat aircraft are operating.

Israel’s decision to establish a communications link to the Russians near Latakia highlights Israel’s resolve to retaliate against Syria for every spillover effect from the Syrian civil war that lands in Israeli territory.”

Update: I posted a response to another comment:

susanholly Saturday, October 17, 2015 1:02AM
There’s a neocon cabal that includes the likes of the Kagan/Kristol clans and they strategize together. Kimberly Kagan runs the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which pours out bad maps on the disposition of Syrian forces- that everyone, to include the US State Dept, John McCain (who hired the former ISW liar, O’Bagy and she serves as a foreign policy legislative aide to McCain now) and FOX and CNN use. GEN Keane gives the ISW gravitas and I am not sure if he is aware of the bad maps…. Unfortunately for America, the ISW seems to be the only map-maker…. I still would like to know the full background of Elizabeth O’Bagy and how this young woman who lied about her credentials became the source the media and our government officials began using, without any fact-checking in 2013??? Kerry and McCain quoted her by name in 2013 and her op-ed in the Wall Street Journal almost got us more heavily involved in the Syrian civil war. That the ISW maps are still accepted as a reliable source is just incredible!

For an even more disturbing memory jog – O’Bagy was serving as the political director for the Syrian Emergency Task Force in 2013 and that lobbying group took McCain to Syria in early 2013 on a “fact-finding” trip, where he was posed with some “rebels”, who are alleged to be Islamist radicals. His staff brushed that off, but then in the Fall of 2013 when the ISW fired O’Bagy – McCain hired her. Bryan Preston at PJmedia (http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013… wrote a lot of stuff about O’Bagy’s background. I wonder if she underwent a complete background check when she went to work of McCain or if it was waived. O’Bagy also showed up as signing a sworn affidavit for an alleged American jihadist, Eric Harroun, in Arizona, who was facing a possible life sentence for joining Al Qaeda, but O’Bagy vouched that he was a “Syrian moderate” fighting for the Free Syrian Army (http://www.debbieschlussel.com…. Harroun got a $100 fine and probation. I’ve been following and writing about this on my blog (http://libertybellediaries.com… since 2013.

Harroun’s story – http://www.newyorker.com/magaz…

He got involved with the Islamic Center of Tucson (http://www.clarionproject.org/…, described as:

“At least a dozen terror-linked individuals have been tied to the Islamic
Center of Tucson (ICT). The mosque and the state of Arizona are
mentioned 59 times in the 9/11 Commission Report.[1] The mosque is considered to be “basically the first cell of al Qaeda in the United States.”[2]”