Yesterday on FOX News I heard a new “idea” from Michael O’Hanlon from the Brookings Institution and also the same general plan from former ambassador, Dennis Ross – ta-dummmmm, hold the applause, it’s “The Bosnia Plan”.
Generally, this plan envisions a partitioned Syria with safe zones for the various factions and get this, the Russians are supposed to help secure this and maybe the Turks and who knows maybe the unicorns, pixies and leprechauns can magically appear too.
There’s this delusional trapped thinking that paralyzes so many of these academic strategic analysts, who only talk to other like-minded insular thinkers. No new ideas, no bold moves, just regurgitated, echo-chamber nonsense. So, try this on for size – if Assad falls, ISIS will seize control of all of Syria. This will be a seismic event for the “Caliphate” and IT will encourage more radical extremism, because nothing encourages followers more than being on a winning team. It motivates people to sign up.
Ross, O’Hanlon, the entire Obama administration argue the opposite. They say Assad staying will encourage more jihadists, but here’s the catch, the only way to avoid ISIS seizing control of all of Syria is for someone to fight ISIS and the Russians have put together an alliance to do that.
The reality on the ground determines the options available -a smart strategist should try to seize this opportunity for America to change course, talk to the Russians – work out a coordinated effort to defeat ISIS and guess what, if we act, a lot of the Arab leaders will gravitate toward the US alliance, because they will want to counter the Iranian influence. Balancing the push and pull from both sides of the Shia/Sunni divide will be easier to work out with the Russians than with the Shias and Sunnis frankly.
We need to keep our eyes on REGIONAL STABILITY, which benefits everyone, except ISIS and other jihadist nutjobs.
Let the Cold War die – look ahead and try to think of a different approach!
A couple years ago I wrote a blog post, “The Mom World Peace Solution”:
“Certainly the tragedy in Syria leaves one wishing for a way to end the fighting quickly. However, handing more weapons to poorly led, rampaging bands of rebels with little military finesse and a lot of rage seems a recipe for more horrific violence, not less. The world needs real leadership where the strongest countries should agree to provide a united front and force some calm and work at disarming rather than funneling in more and more advanced weaponry. Once the irrational actors are neutralized, then rational actors in places like Syria should come to the table and work at political solutions. This is the Mom world peace solution – take away the dangerous toys from the kids who can’t play nice and who haven’t mastered some self-control. No fancy one-world government solution or new complicated political theory or even some religion- just common sense. The road to Peace is built, brick by brick, by building trust among leaders (people). As with most human endeavors the answers are simple, but that sure doesn’t make them easy. Trust is one of the hardest things for people to achieve – definitely much harder than devising a theory like “mutually assured destruction”. Only men could think up that one, believe me! A Mom sure never would – she’d take away the weapons from the misbehaving, immature kids on the world stage and put them in time out until they learned to play nice;-)”