The Democratic debate

Phew, I survived the Democratic debate. Lincoln Chaffee seemed all over the board, but he’s right on the need to end these wars. Bernie is out there. Martin O’Malley excelled at being the most annoying political hack.

I wondered which of her 101 accents and personalities Hillary would settle on. Question answered – she decided to take on her most supercilious “The Queen” persona and that holier-than-thou tone. And as fitting The Queen, she got to talk more than any other candidate – unfortunately.

The best candidate by far, to include the GOP field too, is Jim Webb. He’s honest, he’s forthright, he’s served and bled for our country, he’s great on foreign policy, he’s sensible on domestic policy, he wants to keep the federal government working within the confines of The Constitution. Too bad, he doesn’t stand a chance and in this debate, they pretty much kept him sidelined and out of the conversation.

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Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton scandals, ranked from most important – Washington Times

1. Monica Lewinsky: Led to only the second president in American history to be impeached.

Source: Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton scandals, ranked from most important – Washington Times

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Hillary’s big Datto Fail

The Hillary email server saga continues…   Here’s a Daily Mail UK exclusive:

EXCLUSIVE: Open doors, no checkpoints and a dumpster waiting to be rifled through – security farce at ‘data fortress’ run by company that held Hillary Clinton’s emails

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269608/Open-doors-no-checkpoints-dumpster-waiting-rifled-security-farce-data-fortress-run-company-held-Hillary-Clinton-s-emails.html#ixzz3oSCBQeAq
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What Happened on October 13th – The Continental Navy is Established

Little bit of U.S. Navy history.

Maryann Holloway's avatarIF I ONLY HAD A TIME MACHINE

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On October 13, 1775, the Continental Congress authorizes the first American naval force which is know today as the United States Navy.  Since hostilities were underway since April with the former motherland, Great Britain, there had been little thought about the protection by sea.  When news of a British navy fleet being on its way, action was needed.  In November, the Continental Navy was formally organized.  In December, Esek Hopkins was appointed its first commander-in-chief.

Commodore Esek Hopkins (1718-1802), Commander in Chief of the Continental Navy Commodore Esek Hopkins (1718-1802), Commander in Chief of the Continental Navy

The first fleet consisted of seven ships:  two 24-gun frigates, the Alfred and the Columbus; two 14-gun brigs, the Andrea Doria and the Cabot and three schooners, the Hornet, the Wash, and the Fly.  The Navy often names ships the same as a previous, hence these familiar ship names from the World War two error.  The Navy had success during the Revolutionary War with several…

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October 13, 2015 · 8:09 am

Rerun of “Who will defend our castle?”

The Steve Kroft 60 minutes interview showed President Obama on the defensive about his handling of our fight against the Islamic State and foreign policy in the Mid-East generally.  No apologies from this emperor with new clothes, whom the whole world now sees is not only an “empty suit”, nor recognition that he is sitting there exposed by the naked truth, his infamous “narratives” notwithstanding. The President deflected responsibility for his own failed program to arm Syrian rebels, by stating he didn’t really think it would work from the beginning, even though he approved the project, trying to turn the tables that he was prescient and others (the neocon contingent) who promoted the program were wrong or maybe he meant it’s the US military’s fault for the failure.  With this President, he will throw anyone under the bus (even close friends like Jeremiah Wright) to make himself look better.

Kroft pressed President Obama about lack of American leadership and suggested that Vladimir Putin’s rise as a player in the Mid-East comes on the heels of lack of American leadership and retreat,  but of course,  our narcissist-in-chief keeps trying to sell himself as the strong horse in the race, oblivious to reality.

With this in mind, where is our First Lieutenant, John C. “Jack” Lee, Jr., whom I wrote about last year in a  blog post, aptly titled, “Who will defend our castle?”:

“No man can climb out beyond the limitations of his own character” 

– John, Viscount Morley

Being sort of squeamish and abhorring violence, I’m not a fan of war movies, but one of my favorite movies, oddly enough, is The Big Red One, the 1980 Sam Fuller WWII epic.  Being a lowly private in the Army, stationed in southern Germany in 1980, our movie theater was located across a parking lot,  behind my barracks.  My kaserne, perched atop a picturesque southern mountaintop, was a vintage German army post and the Germans built their posts in a consistent, orderly fashion, with the companies neatly arranged around a parade field in the center and all the lesser support facilities beyond that tight circle.

There wasn’t much to do on small kasernes, like the one I was at, but being a little country girl, I found everything new and interesting. I could imagine I was Heidi in the Alps (well, okay, the Swabian Alps), following the footpath down the mountain to the town proper or let my imagination run wild,  gazing out the large window at the end of the female hallway, where a view to rival the famous Neuschwanstein Castle, greeted me each morning.  My view, a lovely old monastery perched upon another mountaintop in the distance, fueled my ever-fluttering flights of fancy.  Of course, I took several trips to that old monastery to explore it close-up.

Now, having a movie theater within walking distance seemed a luxury to me, because the nearest movie theater, where I grew-up in the mountains of  PA, was 10 miles away.  I would always ask a few of the guys to go to the movies with me and first we’d go to the snack bar, next to the movie theater, for ice cream, because I loved eating my vanilla ice cream first.  These uncomplaining young men, in gentlemanly fashion, usually insisted on buying my ice cream too.

I met many wonderful young men in that unit and as an aside to this tale, gentlemen were still in plentiful supply in the US Army in those days. Back to my story,  the only drawback to our movie theater was the same movie played for weeks on end, until something new arrived from the States.   I watched The Big Red One over and over and each time I came away remembering some new details I had missed before.

JK sent me a link to a fascinating WWII story, The Battle for Castle Itter, which reminded me of a line from The Big Red One, that has stuck with me all these years.   I’ve spent decades thinking about war and wondering if this endless cycle of human behavior can ever change.  I’ve wondered if we’re destined to continually build up human societies, only to demolish them through corruption and then outside conquest.  I’ve wondered, as the line in The Big Red One, will we ever find a time when, “der krieg ist vorbei.

The almost farcical nature of the characters and events in the battle for Castle Itter provides a quirky, yet almost emblematic view of  how in the unlikely circumstance of fighting for their lives, this castle’s curious mix of inhabitants, like people everywhere, can put aside national and personal loyalties, to unite in moments, because not much else mattered, except surviving.

The story centers on VIP French prisoners, whom the SS kept imprisoned in Castle Itter during WWII.  As the Americans advanced across Europe in the waning days of the war, a young American first lieutenant, John C. “Jack” Lee, Jr., made the mistake of volunteering to go secure the castle, after a surrendering German major arrived to tell the advancing Americans about the VIP prisoners held prisoner in nearby Castle Itter.  The young American officer sets off with 8 volunteers, plus 5 soldiers from the African-American Company, along with the surrendering German major and a truckload of his German soldiers.   The French VIPs, upon seeing their small rescue force, were unimpressed that such a paltry band of soldiers was sent to rescue their grand personages.  But quickly the scene changed as the castle fell under attack from SS troops.  The squabbling French VIPs (which included two French generals, who despised each other) and  the surrendering Germans all turned to the young American lieutenant to take charge of their castle defense.  To get the full impact of the absurdity of the events, read the full story of the battle for Castle Itter (here’s the link again).

In history, certain moments in time become the leitmotif, that subsequent generations warn us identify a bellwether event.  Glenn Beck, aside from drawing complex charts, in which he connects the dots, in ever-widening and distant circles, prognosticates often about what he refers to as  “the Archduke Ferdinand moment”, harkening back to the assassination of the Austrian heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne in Serbia, which led to the outbreak of World War I.  History doesn’t replay like watching old reruns on TV, it’s more nuanced and runs along in patterns that require looking at human history from a wider perspective than awaiting a single, harbinger of doom event.

Times do change and while history is replete with enough strange coincidences to give one pause, it seems more useful to step back and take a big picture view of history, if seeking a more useful predictive model.  As events in the world overtake our national security folks in the Obama administration’s collective strategic-thinking ability, America seems adrift in the world.  America, with President Obama, leading us from behind, forces his national security team to play defense (rather poorly),  reacting in ever-disjointed fits and starts.  The US flails about, wantonly widening  the decades old strategic-vacuum the US fell into when the infamous “end of history’ mentality took hold after the Soviet Union imploded and we sat on our laurels just floating along in a dangerous world, believing we could bail water faster than anyone else in the world, safe and insulated from the geopolitical waves around the globe.  Sadly, our lifeboat went to sea without strategic life-vests, part of the new fly-by-the-seat-of-our pants, not so grand strategy. The always erudite and eloquent, G. Murphy Donovan (here), assessed the Obama administration’s policy,The Brennan Doctrine:

“There is no evidence that the Brennan doctrine supports prudent near or long-term strategy. Strategic appeasement has now produced a generation of catamite tacticians, leaders that assume a defensive crouch after each indignity, hoping that the next atrocity will not hurt as much as the last.”

In numerous past posts, I’ve bloviated on and on and on about this President’s dangerous lack of geopolitical acumen (here, here, here, here), an endless broken record playing the same old tune.  To begin to understand history it starts from the little picture human building block – trust.  Believe it, because it’s true!  No matter how enlightened, how educated, how many fancy degrees and terminology you conjure up, at the end of the day, trust determines our fate, from the smallest human endeavor and interactions to the big picture moves by countries on the world stage. To repeat from my  “B.H. Liddell Hart Echoes through time” post last year, (from his short book, “Why We Don’t Learn From History” – free download here):

“Civilization is built on the practice of keeping promises.  It may not sound a high attainment, but if trust in its observance be shaken the whole structure cracks and sinks.  Any constructive effort and all human relations – personal, political, and commercial – depend on being able to depend on promises.”

Over the weekend, while reading a favorite blog, Diplomad2.0, that’s a regular stop on my blogging routine, I found a link posted in the comments section, by Sundling, obviously an historically-inclined poster, that left me wondering why no one in my history classes had ever mentioned this brilliant paper before: “Fate of Empires and Search For Survival”, by Sir John Glubb.  Published in 1976, this 26 page paper blasts away at studying history through a series of memorization of isolated, unconnected events or from a lopsided view from one country’s or time period’s perspective.  Glubb implores us to step back and take a long view of history as a study of the human race.    A short search of Sir John Glubb’s bio and you will find a man who traveled extensively, read extensively, and a man whose ideas moved beyond the island of his birth to encompass the world and humanity, in its entirety:

“To derive any useful instruction from history, it seems to me essential first of all to grasp the principle that history, to be meaningful, must be the history of the human race. For history is a continuous process, gradually developing, changing and turning back, but in general moving forward in a single mighty stream. Any useful lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one country or another.  Every age and culture is derived from its predecessors, adds some contribution of its own, and passes it on to its successors. If we boycott various periods of history, the origins of the new cultures which succeeded them cannot be explained.”

Glubb’s short paper breaks down the life of empires as falling into an amazingly similar pattern through history, which he divides into 5 distinct ages of an empire.  The last age is the Age of Decadence, which he describes as :

“The Age of Decadence.

(e) Decadence is marked by:

Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.

(f) Decadence is due to:

Too long a period of wealth and power
Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty.

(g) The life histories of great states are amazingly similar, and are due to internal factors.

(h) Their falls are diverse, because they are largely the result of external causes.”

For a fuller understanding of his views, read the short paper.  I’m not Glenn Beck and I won’t pretend to be the harbinger of doom, but I must say, at the very least, this paper caused a few ripples of uneasiness as I digested Glubb’s analysis of the life cycle of empires, once again,  published in 1976.

Watching the events in recent years play out, with American military adventurism, in pursuit of transplanting democracy in  inhospitable arid desert sands during the Bush years, then moving to knee-jerk, reactionary gambits under Obama’s shaky trigger-finger, trying to force regime change on the cheap, with bluster and poorly applied military pressure, it’s clear to see that America desperately needs, if not a grand strategy, at least a coherent strategy.  The Battle for Castle Itter serves as the perfect metaphor for how the world understands a calm, strong American taking charge of a dicey situation and even a passel of troublesome French notables, to include two generals, quickly fell into line and followed.  A group of surrendering Nazis, likewise sized up their situation and cast their lot with the unflappable young American commander, who without hesitation led from the front.  And at the end of day, sadly, 1st Lieutenant Lee, came from another American generation, far removed from the Choom-gang, drug haze of Obama’s youth.

The Battle for Castle Itter also shows how a whole bunch of competing interests can spin wildly out of control and create an international conflagration in moments and sadly we don’t have a calm, collected American commander to defend our castle.  We’ve got, leading-from-behind Obama, war-protesting, medal-throwing John Kerry, yes-sir, yes-sir Chuck Hagel and drone kill champ Brennan, nudged by the likes of Samantha the genocide pixie, Susan the ever-faithful political handmaiden, and always hovering nearby, bossy-pants Valerie, keeping watch that none dare stray from her approved  narrative (fabrications)…

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Granddaughters’ Fall mason jar candles.

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October 12, 2015 · 2:58 pm

An idea takes hold…. imagine that

Hey, perhaps my idea is taking hold: “Will Obama Respond to Russia in Syria? by Michael Curtis.  He recognized that the US policy is more concerned with Assad than with dealing with ISIS – how about that “revelation”, lol.  Same old, same old – just like with the Elizabeth O’Bagy situation,

I posted this in comments at the American Thinker under my susanholly name:

Yes, the US should talk to Putin – wrote this on my blog since October 5th- (http://libertybellediaries.com…, http://libertybellediaries.com…, http://libertybellediaries.com… and I have posted it in comments here and at National Review several times. Chaos or ISIS will seize control if Assad falls first in Syria. There is no plan to prevent that from happening. Obviously, if the Russians and Iranians help the Assad regime retake more territory in Syria, ISIS will be pushed eastward. We should work with forces from the east and in Iraq to push against ISIS from that direction. Rather than all this saber-rattling about Putin, we should be in serious talks about Our Plan to degrade and defeat ISIS.

In grade school long ago, they used to teach kids about various forms of government and at the far end, the worst thing is not a despot – it’s anarchy and that is what we left in Libya and when we pulled out of Iraq too. Libya is still in chaos, ISIS filled that power vacuum in Iraq and is poised to do so in Syria if Assad falls. Syria has been a Russian client state for 40 years, so big deal if it remains a Russian client state. The big threat to the US is not Russia in Syria, it’s Russia being successful in Syria and replacing the US in influence in the region. We can regain American credibility, by moving to help restore REGIONAL STABILITY

If Assad goes as seems to be the US policy at the moment, there is no plan in place to fill that power vacuum. The Islamic State and radicalized Sunnis will seize control. Our policymakers have offered nothing that makes any sense at all.

Now we could talk to Putin like sane people and come up with a real plan to defeat ISIS as the Russians push them eastward toward Iraq. Then after some stability and order is restored in Syria and Iraq, international pressure could be brought to bear from Brussels to deal with Assad. The Russians might be inclined to give up Assad if a Russian-friendly government is in Syria, international pressure could then promote safe zones and actually make them work in Syria for a return of displaced refugees. And the US and Russia might be viewed as adults on the world stage for a change, instead of treating the rest of the world like pawns in some geopolitical chess game (which the US plays badly btw).

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Better to be a Crow

JK reminded me of some useful things to keep in mind about political partisans, who (in my opinion) have turned this country into pretty much divided, hostile camps, where the partisans refuse to even consider the ideas, views, and most definitely not the policy ideas of the other side.  We live in a society, where people voluntarily choose to let ideology blind them to even considering solutions from the “other side” and instead determinedly work to destroy the “other side”.  This helpful suggestion from JK brought to mind some other piece of excellent wisdom he shared over a year ago:

“There’s a somewhat useful methodology label analysts occasionally admit to using. The Crow Method. Don’t know you ever spent much time in barnyards/feedlots. … Next time you find yourself where bovines and crows are gathered, pick one crow and keep eyes on that one crow. If you’ve chosen a smart crow, the crow’ll be following a big bull and everytime the bull drops a load, the crow’ll swoop down and swirl around the bovine waste looking for the few nuggets of undigested golden corn kernels. The crow will take the corn leaving the remainder of the bullshit for the worms.”

“Better to be a Crow. Dirty work but not so dirty as being a worm. Worms’ll swallow anything.”

It’s time for a new American revolution – one where we work to find common ground with each other, rather than trying to destroy one another:

“Americans need to wake up and realize that before they side up against other Americans they had better take the time to walk up to those who hold different views and sit down and talk first. Perhaps by actually getting “to know” other people, we might be able to bridge the gaps and build a stronger nation, where all views from all people get heard at our political kitchen table.  And just maybe communities might get back to holding potluck dinners where everyone comes and shares a meal and gets to know his/her neighbors.  What an amazing concept that is – getting to know other people, up close and personal.  It just might revolutionize America;-)”

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Short note

Posted my plan again at National Review under my susanholly username – in the comments of some piece that reads like a freshman college research paper – lot of noise, no real insights or understanding of military strategy.   A lot of recitation of the neocon talking points.  Btw, I wonder if Andrea Tantaros read my plan –  yesterday in that group of talking women show on FOX she suggested talking to Putin and attacking ISIS as they move eastward… LOL Maybe women will be more receptive to a new strategy coming from a woman.  Men won’t even pay any attention to my plan.

“How To Confront Vladimir Putin” by Matthew Continetti

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Ideology breeds lies, deceptions, delusions

Here’s the LB primer on how I try to analyze the news and intelligence information too.  A while back, I wrote a blog post on agendas within the American media and it’s to the point where political partisanship has so infected our society that most people pick their niche and then read only news and blogs that cater to their political views.  The problem comes in when partisans twist the news and the facts to fit their agenda.  This is where we are at in America.  With the situation in Syria, the partisan “experts”, both civilian and military,  are coming out of the woodwork to promote their pet policy ideas, because frankly, their professional reputations are riding on this and/or they are so enmeshed in the domestic political partisanship, that they are blinded to the truth.

Prepare yourself to be stunned at the battle they put up to fight strawmen, imaginary enemies and create narratives to prop up their delusions.  Americans also might wake up to the fact that  many of their trusted, so-called “military analysts” and “foreign policy experts”, upon whom they rely, repeat mindless power point drivel, nicely wrapped in bad historical analogies or hollow catchphrases.

You can believe whatever you want, but cold, hard facts are cold, hard facts no matter how you spin it and in this situation, let me be clear, I am an American first, before any partisanship and my loyalties are to the United States of America, not a political party.  We have American military members at risk every day, who put their lives on the line to protect America and to defend The Constitution.  I swore that oath in 1979 and I intend to keep it.  In this Syrian debacle, it’s not just about President Obama’s foreign policy;  American lives are at risk in the region and our leaders, both civilian and military, owe it to these brave warriors to do due diligence, can the egos and come up with the best strategy to achieve the mission.

I recommended this little booklet before, but it’s imperative for Americans to wake up and recognize lies, deceptions, distortions and to learn, as this booklet’s title states it: “ How To Analyze Information: A Step-by-Step Guide to Life’s Most Vital Skill”, written by Herbert E. Meyer.  This short booklet identified the problem we have in America to finding an effective American foreign policy – it’s called “IDEOLOGY”.

When I read information, I like to find out the source.  Next I like to know some background on the source, like what political affiliation and educational background.  It also helps to look at past places the person worked and their previous writings. It gives me a frame of reference.

I’ve been mentioning these maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which get accepted as the “facts on the ground” in Syria, by the media, the US State Department and even many in the Department of Defense without question.   Many prominent neoconservative mouthpieces have bought into a particular strategic paradigm on the situation in Syria and they’re stuck on arming the Syrian moderates, Assad must go, and the safe zone track.  They have staked their professional reputations on this policy, so don’t expect them to change.  The Obama administration likewise wants to create a narrative to cover-up the colossal failure of its strategy to defeat the Islamic State.

So, here’s the deal, ideology distorts your vision and it can even blind you to the truth, especially political and religious ideology.   Meyer’s booklet costs a couple bucks, but it can teach you how to become more savvy at analyzing information.  Learn to doubt experts!  Strategy, especially military strategy, should be able to be explained in clear, simple language that ordinary people can understand.  Using fancy terminology or creating catchy terminology often masks terrible strategy or magical thinking.  Learn to be a skeptic. Learn to take the pieces of a strategy apart and think about whether that piece will really achieve the ends it’s supposed to.  If you have doubts, good, start doing some independent research.

Aquamarine vs. turquoise explains the dangers of factions and extreme ideology.

 

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