Category Archives: Foreign Policy

Grenada tourist map from 1983

In comments on my previous post I mentioned this Grenada tourist map, which my husband acquired in 1983, when he deployed to Grenada.  He and his friends found this map description of the population, “120,000 warm and friendly people.”,  hysterically funny – as they were being shot at:

grenada map front0002 grenada rescan0004

All of this yammering about “Syrian moderates” brought this map to mind.  Sorry for the small text to the right of the map cover – technical difficulties as usual, but at least I am managing to get some photos and stuff uploaded these days – a slow, difficult slog for me, I assure you!

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Propaganda at work?

Let me be clear that both LTC Tony Shaffer and GEN Jack Keane gave an accurate military analysis of what’s going on with the Russian airstrikes, but Shaffer was on Megyn Kelly last night and Kelly went on and on about the Russians hitting targets other than ISIS, which is the Obama administration narrative. Shaffer explained the true nature of the targets and laid out the Russian moves objectively.  GEN Keane, likewise explained the military moves objectively with Chris Wallace  on Sunday.  Look at both maps in the background, both from the Institute for the Study of War.  The map on the Kelly show has that entire rebel area where the bulk of the strikes occurred as solid yellow which is the rebel controlled area, not ISIS.  The map with General Keane shows ISIS areas in green ISIS-controlled areas within that yellow rebel zone and the largest Russian target area is a green area to the north of the regime-controlled area.  The Kelly show is the more recent aired show with the less accurate map – why?

Embedded image permalink

Image from Megyn Kelly’s Twitter- https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/651207283574083584

generalkeanemap

Image from http://politibrew.com/politics/3298-general-jack-keane-how-russian-airstrikes-will-impact-region

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My bare-bones plan

Here’s my plan – laugh if you want, but this is what I think we should do. I posted this using my susanholly user name at National Review in comments at David French’s “The Irony of Obama’s Declaration of Russian Weakness”

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/425100/irony-obamas-declaration-russian-weakness-david-french

We should work with the Russians to take out ISIS and Al Qaeda as the Russian/Assad/Iranian coalition pushes them eastward. Monday morning quarterbacking about supposed “moderate” CIA backed rebels , who have been closing in on Assad, not ISIS as we’re ostensibly arming them to do or whining about Russian targets and battle plans shows clearly that America doesn’t have a strategy. A smart President would try to look at the big picture strategy that really does serve American national interests, which is REGIONAL STABILITY. We could work with this grand Allied coalition Obama bragged about, the Baghdad government, Kurds and prepare to actually make a dent in ISIS, in coordination with the Russian/Assad/Iranian coalition, while not having to actually engage in their same battlefield space. We could salvage some American credibility for a change.

The President could make a deal with the Russians to rein in the Iranians arming Hezbollah, as part of our bargaining, which we sure owe the Israelis as our closest ally in the region.

Assad could then be a problem perfect for the pressure of Brussels.

The late GEN William E. Odom identified this strategy all along: https://youtu.be/j8DPV-qDKcQ

We (the American people) should quit playing into Obama administration narratives.

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Defining the American strategy: REGIONAL STABILITY

I thought about this General William E. Odom advice on Iraq and President Obama did pull out of Iraq, but he has failed on the finding a new strategy.  We left a gaping power vacuum, with a dithering, weak, ineffectual administration allowing Russia to take the lead on now trying to establish some sort of alliance to prop up the Assad regime.

No matter how you slice this, it will mean neutralizing Al Qaeda and ISIS, which are the opposition forces threatening the Assad regime.  Despite the White House trying to save face with a propaganda campaign, I highly doubt it’s some U.S. backed “Syrian moderate” force the Russians are bombing.  The better question would be to challenge President Obama and John Brennan, the director of the CIA, about who exactly we have been arming in Syria!  I certainly would love to know who all these “Syrian moderates” are.

What we need is exactly what GEN Odom talks about in this video – a long-term strategy focused on “REGIONAL STABILITY”.  At the very beginning he mentions counterinsurgency too and offered some opinions worth thinking over:

https://youtu.be/j8DPV-qDKcQ

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NY Times on training foreign fighters

Billions From U.S. Fail to Sustain Foreign Forces

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Al Qaeda brigade claims attack on Russian forces in Syria | The Long War Journal

On the same day that Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, a mainly Uzbek jihadist group, swore allegiance to Al Nusrah Front, it claimed an attack on Russian forces in

Source: Al Qaeda brigade claims attack on Russian forces in Syria | The Long War Journal

Note: September 30, 2015 story

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Ahrar al Sham claims rocket attacks on airbase where Russians are stationed | The Long War Journal

Ahrar al Sham claims to have launched Grad rockets at the Hmeimim airbase in the Latakia province of Syria earlier today. Russian forces are stationed at the

Source: Ahrar al Sham claims rocket attacks on airbase where Russians are stationed | The Long War Journal

Note: October 2, 2015 story

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Put on your thinking caps, America!

Listening to Sean Hannity dissect what is going on in Syria with Donald Trump is too much stupidity for me to take.  So, I’m going to take a break from my Pinterest and looking at cute pine cone projects to make with my granddaughters this weekend and give a quick assessment of how I see matters.

The US policymakers keep talking about training “Syrian moderates” to fight ISIS for us, but that strategy is flawed from the get-go.  The “moderates” want to oust Assad, NOT defeat ISIS.  This problem keeps cropping up when we train them, they don’t want to fight ISIS – they want to fight Assad.  Here’s a quote from this analysis by Charles Lister (UK Telegraph September 15, 2013):

“Because of the Islamist make up of such a large proportion of the opposition, the fear is that if the West doesn’t play its cards right, it will end up pushing these people away from the people we are backing,” he said. “If the West looks as though it is not interested in removing Assad, moderate

Islamists are also likely to be pushed further towards extremists.”

Though still a minority in number, ISIL has become more prominent in rebel-held parts of Syria in recent months. Members in northern Syria have sought to assert their dominance over the local population and over the more moderate rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The aim of moderate rebel fighters is the overthrow of their country’s authoritarian dictator, but jihadist groups want to transform Syria into a hard-line Islamic state within a regional Islamic “caliphate”.

We train them and want them to serve our strategic mission, but theirs has a different order of battle – with Assad as their top mission.  It will never work.  You can’t force people to accept your view of the enemy.  Even “moderates” will share much in common with ISIS as far as religion, ethnic identity, etc.   Why this is so hard for the arm the “Syrian moderate” proponents to grasp, I don’t know.

The push that Assad must go, while ISIS is still fighting and occupying territory makes no sense either.  We would just be leaving another power vacuum for radicals to fill or more chaos.  Putin is right on propping up Assad and taking out radicals first.  Hopefully he can take out enough quickly to force a ceasefire from the less radicalized rebel factions and then we should work on defeating ISIS – seriously working on it.  If the area can be stabilized the only way Assad will go is through diplomatic pressures being brought to bear, so that the millions of displaced Syrians can return home.

The Assad regime leaving should be a second tier concern truthfully – stability is more important.  If we fixate on arming “Syrian moderates” and politicizing every rebel target Russia hits – we will become irrelevant, because they are doing and we are Monday morning quarterbacking – it’s a weak position.  We need to figure out things to do – heck, Iraq is wide open for strategic ideas and we know Iraq from top to bottom.  For the time being (as long as Obama is president) Russia and Iran will advance their big game – we can’t really alter that, because Obama and Kerry are clueless nincompoops.  Likewise, publicly whining about Russia’s long-term geo-strategic aims won’t help matters either.  What we need are good strategies for fighting ISIS that showcase our military strengths and aren’t trapped by echo-chamber ideas.  We’ve got to have more options than arming “Syrian moderates” and “safe zones” -we’ve got the finest military minds in the world!

Oh, one more thought on the Russian’s targeting and keep in mind they taught geography back in the dark ages when I went to school – The Russians and all their big assets are in “western Syria”, they began hitting rebel (I wouldn’t bet money on whose who on the moderate scale in Syria) targets closest to their big assets.  You would want to establish a larger safe zone for your military stuff first, right?  That makes sense, don’t you think?  ISIS controls eastern parts of Syria if this map is even remotely correct.  The Russian moves made perfect military sense from what I can tell.

Okay, it’s back to Pinterest for me and more crafts and recipes.  I found a recipe for gingerbread cupcakes with cream cheese frosting – now doesn’t that sound perfect since the weather’s a little cooler?

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More Obama administration pretzel logic

Prepare for another LB ramble on Syria.  Yesterday, I felt anger at the American military being humiliated by the way the Russians began their air campaign in Syria.  That 3-star general showing up at the US embassy in Baghdad with démarche orders was meant to humiliate.  We have no leadership in America, only bloviating political hacks – President Obama in the White House.  mealy-mouthed generals at the Pentagon, and the media’s perennial favorite Republican foreign policy “expert”, Senator John McCain.  They put the US military in this humiliating position, not Putin.

Propaganda campaigns run amok and sad to say a lot of what the US reports will be as deceptive as the Russians.  For the record, keep in mind all the assurances of the US training and aiding “Syrian moderates”, who turned out to align with ISIS as soon as they had US weapons.  Then there’s the stream of intelligence reports from  CENTCOM under investigation for allegedly being doctored.  And our weak, feckless President, the “Syrian moderate” mouthpiece in the Senate, John McCain and even some in the Pentagon will work hard to cast all Russian actions in a bad light.  John McCain will quote his sources “in the know” and perhaps someone should ask him on whom he relies – is it his aide O’Bagy and her contacts in Syria?  Remember his 2013 fact-finding trip to Syria – he was photographed with alleged terrorists.  We should get the answers to that before we trust McCain and his “reliable” sources. We expect propaganda from the Russians, but watching the mountain of lies from our own government makes me hesitant to believe we’ll be getting honest information as the Obama administration and the “Syrian moderate” cheerleaders try to save face. Russia assuredly has grand strategic aims.  We have no strategy.

Whether the Russians will be able to use the force necessary to defeat ISIS remains to be seen.  Yesterday, when the Russians initiated airstrikes the US government railed about Russian bad manners for how they informed the US of these impending  Russian airstrikes.  The Russians aimed to humiliate the US, of that I have no doubt, but the US response amounted to sniveling. While the Russians orchestrated a rather masterful diplomatic and military effort to assist Assad, the US Secretary of Defense rambled on about the Obama social engineering and budget cuts that will diminish American military might.  That message is not lost on the rest of the world and frankly, Ash Carter may be a nice man, he may be well-studied on military matters, but here’s the truth – he comes across as a weak squish.   John Kerry, Mr. pink bicycle rider, comes across as a weak squish.  Obama, our leader from behind, comes across as the weakest squish of all.

What Putin’s ultimate aims are remain to be seen, but it’s clear he isn’t afraid to act.  G. Murphy Donovan penned an excellent piece at the American Thinker today: “Putin, the Indispensable Man?”  Donovan writes:

“We remember great men because, as Pericles prophesied, great men do great things and then live on in the hearts of other men. “The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to meet it.” Reputation is immortality indeed.

A great man, alas, is not necessarily good or popular. History is not kind to necessary villains. Stalin might be the best example from the WWII pantheon. Good and necessary are very different virtues. Josef Stalin was nonetheless one of those indispensable men who made victory and Russian national survival possible. Ruthless men make good soldiers.

Vladimir Putin may be such a man. Just as surely, Barack Obama is unlikely to be remembered for much beyond strategic inertia.”

John McCain and President Obama will keep mentioning Ukraine in every other breath talking about Putin, but here’s the truth – the US was trying to aid and abet a soft coup there, relying on fools like Victoria Nuland, from the US State Department, whom the Russians intercepted her phone conversation with the US ambassador in Ukraine – discussing which leader the US wanted in Kiev.  The Russians leaked that phone conversation in western media.  Some of the factions the US was cozying up to in Ukraine were neo-nazi thugs, not “freedom fighters”.  The US seems to have become a stickler on the international law and agreements when it comes to demonizing some countries, but with our “regime change” democracy projects, we’re rather lax on following those rules ourselves.  Putin made some fascinating comments in that CBS Charlie Rose interview (part 2 of the interview start about minute 14).  Someone should pin down President Obama on our actions around the world, from Ukraine, Libya (Benghazi too), Iraq and what in the heck our strategy really is in regards to defeating ISIL.  Putin laid out his position clearly.

Putin did offer the rules correctly when he spoke to the UN – Assad does represent the government in Syria and Assad invited the Russians in.  Ash Carter offered up this version of the Russian’s failed logic on propping up Assad, stating that the Russians went after the Free Syrian Army and not ISIL (as the administration refers to them).  Carter, McCain and the administration spend more time arguing for removing Assad than they do talking about how to defeat ISIL.  My main questions for them are: If Assad goes before ISIL is defeated, how is the US going to insure some stable, non-radicalized government emerges in Syria?”  Will it look like Iraq once Obama was in charge of US policy?  Do they plan to help install another regime?  What is their plan to keep ISIL or other jihadists from filling that power vacuum?

If Libya and the Obama pull-out of US troops from Iraq are any indication, they don’t have a plan.  The pretzel logic falls on the US side in this mess.

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Hillary’s security clearance NOT revoked

On September 2, 2015 I posted: “Has Hillary’s security clearance been revoked yet?” McClatchyDC answers that question:

“WASHINGTON Hillary Clinton retains a security clearance allowing her access to classified information despite an FBI inquiry into her handling of sensitive government information on the private email account she used during her tenure as secretary of state.

Clinton, like other top officials appointed by the president, kept her clearance after she left office in 2013, according to a recent letter from Assistant Secretary of State Julia Frifield to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley.

While Clinton has kept her clearance, it’s common practice to suspend them while an investigation or internal inquiry is ongoing, according to some national security experts on Capitol Hill and in private practice. Others say a clearance could be suspended at any time after allegations are made if officials are concerned about the government’s secrets.”

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article36978426.html#storylink=cpy

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