Category Archives: Islam

Seeking cover from air strikes

As I stated yesterday, ISIL/ISIS/IS will adapt to air strikes and just this morning here’s a Washington Times report:

“U.S. airstrikes prompt Islamic State to move positions, hide among civilians”

This pattern is well-known by military planners, but obviously the Obama administration doesn’t listen to them.  Of course, this move by the terrorists makes it impossible to attack them from the air without increasing collateral damage.  The air strikes will provide a wealth of propaganda value for the terrorists, if we attack them in populated areas and the other winner from Obama’s strategy is Assad, who is busily regaining some ground in Syria.  The only side who won’t benefit from this air campaign is the United States.

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Dissecting Obama’s “comprehensive strategy”

Whose side is President Obama on?  We’ve witnessed the results of his unerring ability to choose the side that harms American national interests the most, leaving American prestige at an all-time low and forcing Secretary of State, John Kerry, to scurry around trying to drum up a “coalition” to help fight ISIS.  From CIA director, John Brennan, proclaiming the Muslim Brotherhood “mostly secular” to WH National Security Advisor, Susan Rice proclaiming Bowe Bergdahl a “hero” to the present brouhaha over Syrian “moderates”, it should be obvious to everyone that this administration’s cognitive dissonance behavior pattern is to refute facts with absurd fabricated narratives, deflect attention by creating new straw men to set ablaze, or revert to their default avoidance tactic – blame GWB.

Yesterday I began fuming when I read a Bergdahl update  in the NY Post, which stated:

“But a senior Army official told me court-martialing Bergdahl would “make the president look bad.” In spite of damning evidence against him, the official expects Pentagon brass to separate him from the military with a less-than-honorable discharge, sparing Obama total embarrassment.”

This administration is playing a big game of charades again, just like the Benghazi YouTube video narrative to explain away their multiple security failures, their decision not to attempt a rescue of their besieged annex, but mostly to cover-up what exactly the mission was at that annex (gun-running from Libya to Syria).  This time the facade is a “strategy to destroy ISIS”, yes, indeedy, his loyal minions began that by spending the first 48 hours arguing that this isn’t a “war” and therein lies the truth – this CINC is callously using American troops as propaganda tools.  Every shred of military planning that makes sense to achieve that objective has been tossed into Obama’s eco-friendly recyclable waste basket.  He’s ostensibly planning a multi-year plan for military action by discarding all of the recommendations from his top generals?  Those first 48 hours arguing that this isn’t a “war” should clue you in that you’re watching another pathetic propaganda move to pretend he is doing something about ISIS, without having the guts to really do something.   What he is really doing is waiting out the clock on the press and American public’s attention span, because he knows front page stories fade and the public moves on, happy to forget yesterday’s news.  His generals are gumming up the works, by speaking out about the lack of a winning “war” plan, but they should realize by now, that this CINC ignores all of their advice.  The reports about the WH intention to control bombing targets in Syria make sense, because he wants to be able to stop this “not war” once the public clamor about the gruesome beheadings’ optics  dies down.

This administration lives by polling data, believing that if they can weather the media storm now, the public will lose interest and then it becomes very easy to dismiss those who bring up the matter later as partisan haters, intent on harming the President.  The press willingly plays along, as evidenced by no real answers or accountability from ‘fast and furious” to the present.  Even Bergdahl’s fate has been put on ice until the administration can quietly shuffle him out of uniform with at most, not-so-smiley face discharge papers in hand.  Once you learn the lingo these Obama mouthpieces use, the moves make sense – it’s about their narratives, their optics, their agenda.

Info on the gas attacks in Syria last year – pay attention to the comments section

Benghazi – the real mission (here and here)

Syrian moderates (Bryan Preston and Patrick Poole  – excellent reporting)

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Krauthammer: Obama micromanagement of military strikes is “scary stuff”

Krauthammer: Obama micromanagement of military strikes is “scary stuff”.

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Pentagon: “If we like our war plan, can we keep it?”

Truly, is anyone surprised that President Obama’s battle plan roll-out makes the many glitches with his Affordable Care Act look trivial in comparison?  Perhaps, the top brass need to start asking the White House, “if we like our war plan, can we keep it?”   Today we learn that the Obama administration reached all the way back to LBJ and picking bombing targets from the White House, as the way to run his air campaign in Syria.  The Last Refuge did a good summary of events, with links to the news sources (here).    Let’s hope the senior administration official who thinks Saudi Arabia shares a long border with Syria isn’t part of the inner-circle planning bombing targets.

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What, and who, is a moderate Muslim?Islamic values are codified in the Koran. The idea that some Muslims might interpret those values in a moderate way is like saying there’s such a thing as jihad lite. There’s no getting around the f…

What, and who, is a moderate Muslim?Islamic values are codified in the Koran. The idea that some Muslims might interpret those values in a moderate way is like saying there’s such a thing as jihad lite. There’s no getting around the f….

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The Kagan battle plan (the “moderate” delusion redux)

They’re back…….  Oh my, the Kagans at the ISW have  “A strategy to defeat ISIS and –Win“……  Totally unrealistic expectations based on militarily defeating ISIS, more reliance on nation-building thrust into overdrive, expanded to Iraq and Syria being preserved as nation states, and a whole heap of expecting other regional players to be inanimate pieces on the chess board.  Of course,”moderates” form the lynchpin of their strategy.  Haven’t Kimberly Kagan’s think tank and her sister-in-law, Victoria Nuland, at the State Department caused enough damage to American foreign policy already?    Ms Kagan’s husband, military expert extraordinaire (NOT), Frederick Kagan,  helped draft this power point presentation worthy strategy of overly simplistic bullet point statements, lacking even a hint of feasibility at present due to the collapsed state status in Iraq and Syria, combined with American international prestige being at an all time low.

I wrote about the Kagans last year about this time of the year, “Better than none”……. the leading from behind refresher course:

With so many idiotic opinion pieces,  penned by “experts” no less, hitting the presses, it’s difficult to choose where to begin commenting.  Frederick Kagan, son of famous historian Donald Kagan, brother of Robert Kagan, brother-in-law of snarky Clinton State Department spokesperson, Victoria Nuland and husband of Kimberly Kagan, who heads the Institute for the Study of War (source of much of Syrian resistance “facts” swirling about) seems like a good choice.  Frederick Kagan offers his expertise in a laughably titled Washington Post piece, “On Syria, a weak strike is better than none”.  The title pretty much serves as a leitmotif for the leading-from-behind President.  Yes, I admit it, I laughed at the idiocy of some “military expert” proposing that a “weak” response is better than none.  What a clown!!!  He fits perfectly with this President and bunch of fools.  He rambles on about the morale of the Syrian resistance:

“Especially after this lengthy buildup and public debate, Syrian rebels and their supporters would view a U.S. failure to act as abandonment of their cause. In particular, the moderate Syrian opposition, which relies on support from the United States and its allies, would be devastated.”

Okay, I went on for several more paragraphs about the Kagans, our leader from behind and the neoconservative cabal who have been wrong on every foreign policy prediction since we listened to their nonsense about a cakewalk in Iraq.  How many times do they have to be wrong, before they lose their “military expert” status?

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Lost in Arabia and other Obama tales

“Yet Another U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebel Group Makes Peace with ISIS” – Patrick Poole over at PJ Media reports another vetted Syrian “moderate” rebel group turned on the US, by striking a ceasefire with ISIS.   Poole reports the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) requested heavy weapons to include TOW anti-aircraft missiles from the US earlier this year.  Upon receipt of these weapons and US training, the group’s leader switched sides to ISIS. Check out Mr. Poole’s links in the story, like this March 2014 Foreign Policy magazine glossy piece, “The Frontman vs. al Qaeda”,on SRF commander, Jamal Maarouf, then the State Department’s fully vetted moderate best hope….  Who on earth is vetting these Syrian moderates???

JK sent along this link to Obama’s outsourced war-planning, “Instead of Boots on the Ground, US seeks Iraq Contractors” – military contractors to fill the need for US boots on the ground.  Yes, of course, a civilian job plan for these active duty troops he’s cutting – hooray, he’s looking after veterans at the expense of sound operational planning, because I can assure you (watching the contractor reliance blossom) contractors take a lot of riffraff and aren’t nearly as selective or particular in their hiring or training as active duty commanders.  Oh, and contractors can quit at any time, making them about as reliable as the “fully vetted  Syrian moderates”.  At least these American contractors should be able to speak English and be semi-literate, which is a big plus over dealing with indigenous rebel bands, I suppose.

The Obama foreign policy team consists of many Lee Hamilton acolytes (Ed Lasky covered in 2009 here and in 2010 here).  Now, ever since Grenada, my confidence in the Pentagon map situation evaporated, but really we have the most technologically advanced geospatial capabilities in the world and yet we have “senior administration officials” without even a basic understanding of the geography of the region they’re discussing US military operations planning.  These dunces aren’t competent enough, and yes that includes the 58 states CINC, for the grave responsibilities their offices require.  Lasky reported yesterday“Somebody get these guys in the White House a map”:

“They view it as an existential threat to them. Saudi Arabia has an extensive border with Syria. The Jordanians are experiencing a destabilizing impact of over a million refugees from the Syrian conflict, and are profoundly concerned that ISIL, who has stated that their ambitions are not confined to Iraq and Syria, but rather to expand to the broader region.”

In this story is a link to the original report by T. Becket Adams at the Washington Examiner,“In the best of hands: Senior Obama official makes terrible geography error”, providing a map of Syria and its next-door neighbors (hint, not Saudi Arabia).  From heroics of bygone days like “Lawrence in Arabia” to America’s dumbed-down version, “lost in Arabia”……. Now, back to Lee Hamilton and his foreign policy influence in the Obama administration, kick up your feet, because I’m going to paste  from the Hamilton/Baker 2006, “The Iraq Study Group Report”:

B. Consequences of Continued Decline in Iraq

“If the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe for Iraq, the United States, the region, and the world.(pg. 27)

Continuing violence could lead toward greater chaos, and inflict greater suffering upon the Iraqi people. A collapse of Iraq’s government and economy would further cripple a country already unable to meet its people’s needs. Iraq’s security forces could split along sectarian lines. A humanitarian catastrophe could follow as more refugees are forced to relocate across the country and the region. Ethnic cleansing could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle required to impose order amid anarchy. Freedoms could be lost.(pg. 28)

Other countries in the region fear significant violence crossing their borders. Chaos in Iraq could lead those countries to intervene to protect their own interests, thereby perhaps sparking a broader regional war. Turkey could send troops into northern Iraq to prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence. Iran could send in troops to restore stability in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of oil fields. The regional influence of Iran could rise at a time when that country is on a path to producing nuclear weapons. (pg. 28)

Ambassadors from neighboring countries told us that they fear the distinct possibility of Sunni-Shia clashes across the Islamic world. Many expressed a fear of Shia insurrections— perhaps fomented by Iran—in Sunni-ruled states. Such a broader sectarian conflict could open a Pandora’s box of problems—including the radicalization of populations, mass movements of populations, and regime changes—that might take decades to play out. If the instability in Iraq spreads to the other Gulf States, a drop in oil production and exports could lead to a sharp increase in the price of oil and thus could harm the global economy. (pg.28)

Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, “Al Qaeda is now a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald’s.” Left unchecked, al Qaeda in Iraq could continue to incite violence between Sunnis and Shia. A chaotic Iraq could provide a still stronger base of operations for terrorists who seek to act regionally or even globally. Al Qaeda will portray any failure by the United States in Iraq as a significant victory that will be featured prominently as they recruit for their cause in the region and around the world. Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has declared Iraq a focus for al Qaeda: they will seek to expel the Americans and then spread “the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq.” A senior European official told us that failure in Iraq could incite terrorist attacks within his country. (pg. 28)

The global standing of the United States could suffer if Iraq descends further into chaos. Iraq is a major test of, and strain on, U.S. military, diplomatic, and financial capacities. Perceived failure there could diminish America’s credibility and influence in a region that is the center of the Islamic world and vital to the world’s energy supply. This loss would reduce America’s global influence at a time when pressing issues in North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere demand our full attention and strong U.S. leadership of international alliances. And the longer that U.S. political and military resources are tied down in Iraq, the more the chances for American failure in Afghanistan increase. (pg. 28)

Continued problems in Iraq could lead to greater polarization within the United States. Sixty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the government’s handling of the war, and more than 60 percent feel that there is no clear plan for moving forward. The November elections were largely viewed as a referendum on the progress in Iraq. Arguments about continuing to provide security and assistance to Iraq will fall on deaf ears if Americans become disillusioned with the government that the United States invested so much to create. U.S. foreign policy cannot be successfully sustained without the broad support of the American people. (pg. 28)

Continued problems in Iraq could also lead to greater Iraqi opposition to the United States. Recent polling indicates that only 36 percent of Iraqis feel their country is heading in the right direction, and 79 percent of Iraqis have a “mostly negative” view of the influence that the United States has in their country. Sixty-one percent of Iraqis approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces. If Iraqis continue to perceive Americans as representing an occupying force, the United States could become its own worst enemy in a land it liberated from tyranny. (pg. 29)

These and other predictions of dire consequences in Iraq and the region are by no means a certainty. Iraq has taken several positive steps since Saddam Hussein was overthrown: Iraqis restored full sovereignty, conducted open national elections, drafted a permanent constitution, ratified that constitution, and elected a new government pursuant to that constitution. Iraqis may become so sobered by the prospect of an unfolding civil war and intervention by their regional neighbors that they take the steps necessary to avert catastrophe. But at the moment, such a scenario seems implausible because the Iraqi people and their leaders have been slow to demonstrate the capacity or will to act. (pg. 29)”

Perhaps, Obama’s Hamiltonian foreign policy crew should go back and review their mentor’s full report.

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The leader from behind goes to war

In less than 24 hours the “comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy” sinks,  torpedoed by the left and right, leaving the clueless nincompoops at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue grasping rhetorical life-vests and petulantly parsing the meaning of “war”.  No need for the Islamic State propagandists to write a script, all they need to do is play Obama administration video clips running away from saying “war” to embolden their tens of thousands of fighters (more than 30,000 if our CIA analysis is in the ballpark).  They’re attracting recruits globally and our leader from behind keeps emphasizing that he isn’t putting any Americans boots on the ground for his comprehensive and sustained fight to destroy them.  This chicken little man continued his political rubber chicken circuit with barbarians, who rely on wringing real necks or chopping them off to emphasize their commitment to their “war”  His entire strategy rests on fighters on the ground who are no match for IS and a whole bunch of fancy political maneuvering within Iraq to unify the fractured country.  His vaunted coalition rests on building trust in American leadership, where diplomatic success relies on deft confidence-building by Mr. “I was for it, before I was against it” Kerry, in a world which has watched Obama’s waffling, changes in direction, obfuscations and disastrous Mid-East foreign policy blunders  since 2009.   Witnessing just this past 24 hour administration semantical tap dance undercut their credibility and commitment to destroying the Islamic State.

To demonstrate the difference between those committed to the battle, let’s just compare the messaging.  The ISIL/ISIS/IS camp openly declared war against America and unbelievers everywhere, while we get President Obama and John Kerry parsing their “counter-terrorism efforts” and going to great pains to downplay the military actions that compose their newly-minted “comprehensive  and sustained counter terrorism strategy”.  The absurdity of the Obama clown mobile drives on, with this shameless mountebank offering up snake oil like this:

“I have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are,” he said. “This is a core principle of my presidency: If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven.”

The irony of proclaiming no safe havens for ISIL (his preferred designation), when his disastrously short-sighted and misguided policies created the very safe haven ISIL now controls should propel responsible elected representatives in Washington to speak up.  You could not make this stuff up, even in your wildest imagination.  While vast blobs of Americans meander through life, fat, dumb and happy to be part of the low-information voter, 5-second-attention-span group, you can be certain that in Iraq, Syria or the Levant (Obama’s spin to avoid saying Syria) and beyond the people in Iraq are listening to his lies, but worse than that their very lives are at risk, from his failed policies.  They are forced to live out his lies and on the ground that grim truth feeds a rising tide of recruits for ISIL/ISIS/IS.

American influence and global power, which President Obama frittered away, now leaves him truly leading from behind, with John Kerry chasing after potential coalition members, who no longer trust this administration.  The big picture power dynamics in the region elude this administration, with tossing olive branches to Iran, sticks and stones to Arab leaders who did our bidding, like Mubarak and Qadaffi, and a deaf ear to Israel.

The parsing may work for partisan politicos, but to half-hardheartedly commit US Armed Forces to his announced  military action September 10,2014 and then walk back that declaration the following day speaks volumes that the speech to the nation was a disingenuous and opportunistic PR gambit.

On September 10, 2014 he said: “Our objective is clear: We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL through a comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy.”

On September 11, 2014 CBS reports:  “We’re engaged in a major counterterrorism operation, and it’s going to be a long-term counterterrorism operation. I think war is the wrong terminology and analogy but the fact is that we are engaged in a very significant global effort to curb terrorist activity,” Kerry told CBS News State Department Correspondent Margaret Brennan in an interview from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he is traveling as part of American effort to build a global coalition to battle ISIS.

President Obama’s address to the nation serves a mixed-messaging 16-bean soup that’s bound to cause enough flatulence to provide alternative energy to fuel America for the next year.  What a gigantic crock pot with the emphasis on crock.  Keep the Tums handy.

The big picture situation for the entire region shows a culture suffering major hemorrhages and dying .  America alone can’t stop this bleed out.  David Goldman, in his Spengler column, “14 Million Refugees Make The Levant Unmanageable”,  states:

“The Arab states are failed states, except for the few with enough hydrocarbons to subsidize every facet of economic life. Egypt lives on a$15 billion annual subsidy from the Gulf states and, if that persists, will remain stable if not quite prosperous. Syria is a ruin, along with large parts of Iraq. The lives of tens of millions of people were fragile before the fighting broke out (30% of Syrians lived on less than $1.60 a day), and now they are utterly ruined. The hordes of combatants displace more people, and these join the hordes, in a snowball effect.”

He continues:

“When I wrote in 2011 that Islam was dying, this was precisely what I forecast. You can’t unscramble this egg. The international organizations, Bill Clinton, George Soros and other people of that ilk will draw up plans, propose funding, hold conferences and publish studies, to no avail. The raw despair of millions of people ripped out of the cocoon of traditional society, bereft of ties of kinship and custom, will feed the meatgrinder. Terrorist organizations that were hitherto less flamboyant (“moderate” is a misdesignation), e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood (and its Palestine branch Hamas), will compete with the caliphate for the loyalties of enraged young people. The delusion about Muslim democracy that afflicted utopians of both parties is now inoperative. War will end when the pool of prospective fighters has been exhausted.”

For a far better explanation of the situation than I could ever muster, Henry Kissinger lays out the disintegrating geopolitical situation in an August 31, 2014 piece in The Sunday Times, “The world in flames”.  His analysis breaks down to this one ominous line:

“If order cannot be achieved by consensus or imposed by force, it will be wrought, at disastrous and dehumanising cost, from the experience of chaos.”

 

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One hell of a mess

Patrick Poole at PJ Media continues his excellent reporting on the lynchpin of Obama’s newly minted “strategy” to manage the Islamic State problem: ‘Vetted Moderate’ Free Syrian Army Commander Admits Alliance with ISIS, Confirms PJ Media Reporting.  He states:

“Among the other pertinent points from that PJ Media article last week was that this time last year the bipartisan conventional wisdom amongst the foreign policy establishment was that the bulk of the Syrian rebel forces were moderates, a fiction refuted by a Rand Corporation study published last September that found nearly half of the Syrian “rebels” were jihadists or hard-core Islamists.”

Mr. Poole’s report includes copious links to source material, so grab a cup of coffee and settle in for a cozy reading session.

For the big picture view of our present dilemma dealing with the religion of Peace, G. Murphy Donovan wrote a very interesting piece at The American Thinker, “Global Pathology (Again)”.  He states:

“There is nothing new about religious fascism or caliphates. There is nothing new about rape, infanticide, honor killings, genocide, misogyny, slavery — or headless journalism either. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is the logical consequence of recidivism ignored, that rabid dog stalking the civilized world since the mid-20th Century — or since 632 AD, depending on your attention span.”

So,  as President Obama grapples with implementing a war plan devised by the political Left’s brightest environmentally approved low-wattage bulbs, what shines through is the sheer entrenched ideology where President Obama believes “no religion condones the killing of innocents”, despite endless streams of news reports for decades of  Islamic scholars praising suicide attacks, killing “infidels” wherever they find them and  affirming the religious motivation for jihad.  Be confident, he has moved from calling ISIL/ISIS/IS the JV team, to deciding he’s going to manage them, to now he says he has a plan “to degrade and ultimately destroy” them.  Yes, a  plan that relies heavily on the US being the mercenary air force and weapons supplier/trainer for bands of Islamic groups opposed to ISIL/ISIS/IS.

I like my plan better.  Let them kill each other some more and force the Arab leaders and the nuts in Iran to figure out how to cope with the monster they spawned.  We should be securing our border, becoming energy independent, working on internal security.  Trying to create regional stability without forcing the Saudis and Iranians to own their monster  just gives them another opportunity to blame the US, while they manipulate and use us one more time.  President Obama’s war plan combines “the devil is in the details” and “better the devil you know”  into a monstrously  poor strategy, for a hot war where the sparks could ignite into one hell of a mess very quickly.

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As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken

As Caliphates Compete, Radical Islam Will Eventually Weaken.

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