Obama’s turbulent Mid-East magic carpet ride

Since last week’s Benghazi hearing the partisan clamor on the right ended up looking like a witch hunt and truly could there be a more perfect caricature of an evil witch, replete with the cackle, than Hillary Clinton?  I think of her as “thatwitch2016”, but there again my feelings are based on what personally happened to me during impeachment (Messages of mhere, tabbed at the top of my home page), but that aside the Republicans, as usual, followed the bread crumb trail laid down by that witch2016 and into the oven went their attempt to expose her.  Sure, they scored a few hits, exposing her as callous and mendacious, but she walked away having the last  laugh.

The Republicans keep trying to pin the September 11,2012 attack on Hillary Clinton, but the real responsibility for Benghazi resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  The Benghazi “mission” was not in the State Department facility, but at the CIA facility and that’s where the questions need to be answered – what were we really doing in Benghazi.  When that is answered, the timeline moves further back to why did we really oust Gadaffi and who were the sources of this intelligence of impending alleged “genocide” Gadaffi was plotting?  Was he really plotting a “genocide”?  Who really were the “rebels” in Libya, for whom we instigated regime change to protect?  Were they “freedom fighters or radical Islamists and Al Qaeda?  Once that Gordian knot is untangled, let’s ask the same questions in Syria.  How did “Assad the Reformer” poof into “Assad the genocidal monster”?  Who were the sources of the intelligence used to make these assessments?

Yes, whose intelligence does the Obama administration rely on to make foreign policy decisions?  That is the central question!  With that in mind, a day early, I’m doing a throwback Thursday rerun of my January 25,2015 prognosticative blog post on Obama’s turbulent Mid-East magic carpet ride.  Compare my assessment in January to where we are now and along with the questions posed above, ask how the Obama administration went from claiming Yemen a success story in the fight against terrorism, in September 2014, to the collapse of the Yemeni government in January 2015.  Supposedly, our counter-terrorism campaign was a stunning success according to the President in September and in January 2015  terrorists, financed and armed largely by Iran, toppled the government.  How was the intelligence so lacking or whose intelligence did the Obama administration use to form the September 2014 assessment?  Was it flat out false and falsified intelligence or did the administration choose to write their own fairy tale?  These are the questions we really need answered – because the blame goes all the way to top on Benghazi and Hillary served as the administration’s fire break line last week.  For not exposing the administration’s real activities in Benghazi, it’s likely she earned herself a “get out jail free card” in regards to her email problems.  Here’s my big picture view from January 2015:

January 25, 2015

The Yemen “Success” Story In Flames

Malcolm Pollack wrote an excellent post on the Houthi coup in Yemen, “Rock and Roll, Houthi Coup”.  Malcolm compiled the pertinent facts  on Yemen being another  Muslim failed state, clinging to the edge of the cliff – economic despair, a population reliant on government for its basic needs, a water supply imperiled by khat production, and internecine fighting.   He states:

“About Yemen, President Obama — who, when it comes to foreign policy and a whole lot more, has been described of late as “King Midas in reverse” — had this to say back in September:

This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.

As always, up is down, black is white, etc. Meanwhile, this:

The collapse of the U.S.-backed government of Yemen on Thursday has left America’s counter-terrorism campaign “paralyzed”, two U.S. security officials said, dealing a major setback to Washington’s fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a potent wing of the militant network.”

I recommend you read his entire excellent post.   Now, along with collapse of the Yemeni government,  to the north, Saudi Arabia’s relic of a king passed away.  So, we’ve got the “kingdom” of Saudi Arabia passing the crown to a 79 year-old, who reportedly suffers from dementia, while the court swarms with intrigue. Now, this kingdom feels threatened on all fronts – existentially from Shia expansion, from radicalized Sunni/Salafi Islamist groups, and from crashing oil prices.  In reaction to these external threats they’re building walls (a defensive posture) to keep foreign dangers at bay and bankrolling President Obama’s half-hearted battle to defeat IS/ISIL/ISIS (a money down the drain effort).  John McCreary’s Nightwatch predicts, the new king will likely move toward more conservative domestic postures, which makes sense, to try to preserve power and maintain political stability within the kingdom.  Nightwatch’s analysis states:

“Be prepared for policy changes. The instinctive reaction of living systems is to contract during times of internal stress, and even more so during a leadership crisis. Leadership transition is a time of vulnerability. Most systems increase their defensive vigilance during that period.

Applying that to Saudi Arabia, guards will be extra vigilant to protect the new King and the Crown Prince. Restrictions on population movements and border controls usually tighten. Dissidents and miscreants usually go to ground for a while.

The protective and defensive instinct also applies to policies. That instinct ensures the continuation of the bedrock principles of a state, but not necessarily more discretionary initiatives. In Saudi Arabia, the monarchy, Wahhabism, the tribal heritage and oil are four of the bedrock principles. Experiments in modernity are expendable.

The emphasis in a leadership transition always is stability because when a King dies, the Kingdom can be at risk. Abdallah did all that a reigning monarch can do to protect the monarchy. Readers must expect that his policies and programs will be modified, assuming they survive at all.”

Shia powers smell weakness, as do the radicalized bands of Islamist nutcases, emboldening them to embark on ambitious offensive measures to seize more territory in rudderless states, left from the oh so glorious Arab Spring, our ass backwards, leader from behind, championed.  Sorry, namby-pamby, narrative writers at the White House, the rest of the world isn’t in the business of selling Obama t-shirts, Obama policies or the Obama “legacy” (#ChickensCameHomeToRoost), so they already wrote Obama off as a weak, unreliable partner.

So, we’ve got bands of drug-crazed, drug-financed Islamists and batshit crazy Shia mullahs fighting to rule swaths of war-ravaged, barren sand pits, swarming with millions of hopeless, starving, illiterate people. Yemen is just one more to add to the list.

Don’t expect the Obama administration to do more than rewrite their “narrative” and send John Kerry bearing love beads, groveling to the Iranians once more, begging for them to cooperate on Peace in the region. “Up in smoke” goes the Obama foreign policy on Yemen, hailed only months ago as a huge “success” – like Somalia, no less (yep, failed state Somalia is a Obama success too, who knew….).  To round out President Obama’s capitulation to the threat we can not name – (Islamic Imperialism) , stay tuned, because soon we will see how, the Iranian regime, Terror Central, incorporates nuclear weapons into their OFFENSIVE  MILITARY POSTURE.   One can only wonder if the Obama administration has chewed too much khat like the Somalis and Yemenis or scarier to consider, perhaps these stellar graduates from some of America’s finest universities really believe their own bullshit, oops, “narratives”.

Psst, no, no, no watch and see, it’s those nefarious “right-wing, gun-toting, clinging to their religion Americans” (ostensibly, those dastardly WASPs)  who pose the greatest threat to America.  Let me sip another cup of tea:-)

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Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Military, Politics, Terrorism

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