Category Archives: Military
Misunderstanding al Qaeda – The Long War Journal
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics, The Media
Marching into battle without foot soldiers….
If you live in leftist lalaland and rely on the Obama administration to explain unfolding current events around the globe, the world appears to be a frightening, unpredictable, mysterious swirl of sudden storms of new threats breaking on the horizon. Semantics carries more weight in leftist circles than substance, with political considerations tipping the scales on proclaiming and enforcing the speech code in America. Decades of experience with this tyrannical policing of our language from hyphenated American nomenclature, to more devious castigating former soldiers as potential terrorists, to designating a real terrorist attack on American soil merely a mundane case of workplace violence conditioned Americans to accept parsing to advance the Left’s political agenda. The political right writes scathing commentary about politically correct speech, but the political left controls the media and academia to such an extent that these battles always end with the new politically correct terminology becoming the approved version in American public life.
In Syria, this reclassification process followed President Obama’s fluctuating stance on the ongoing civil war there. As you may recall, President Bashar al Assad went from being Hillary Clinton’s “reformer” in Syria to President Obama’s persona non grata, after declaring Assad used chemical weapons against his own people (before actual investigations were even completed). Thus we went from Kerry flying to Syria in 2009 to meet with his “dear friend” Assad to a rebranded Assad, a threat to humanity in the vein of Hitler, if you listen to Obama spokespeople. In the midst of this Syria policy flip-flop, a cadre of neoconservative mouthpieces, Syrian rebel advocacy lobbyists and Obama sycophants took on the task of selling the solution to the Forlorn Hope that is the Syrian civil war, yes, we were introduced to the Syrian “moderates”, explained to us by Syrian expert par excellence, Elizabeth O’Bagy, who provided both the American public and the Obama White House with her detailed maps of Syrian forces and her smiling assertions that Syrian “moderates” made up the bulk of the Syrian resistance (see LB archives: here, here, here, here).
President Obama makes declarations on world affairs based on personal political expediency, totally devoid of facts and reality, where his minions refer to their “narratives” and worry over the “optics”, like OCD little stage managers in a junior high school play (to go along with junior varsity terrorist threats). Not ones to rest on their laurels, the Obama administration now introduced us to The Khorosan Group in Syria, a brand spanking new terrorist entity. Andrew McCarthy put the kibosh on this latest Obama administration fabrication, bluntly calling the White House on their deception. Mr. McCarthy in “The Khorosan Group Does Not Exist” writes:
“There is a reason that no one had heard of such a group until a nanosecond ago, when the “Khorosan Group” suddenly went from anonymity to the “imminent threat” that became the rationale for an emergency air war there was supposedly no time to ask Congress to authorize.
You haven’t heard of the Khorosan Group because there isn’t one. It is a name the administration came up with, calculating that Khorosan — the –Iranian–Afghan border region — had sufficient connection to jihadist lore that no one would call the president on it.
The “Khorosan Group” is al-Qaeda. It is simply a faction within the global terror network’s Syrian franchise, “Jabhat al-Nusra.” Its leader, Mushin al-Fadhli (believed to have been killed in this week’s U.S.-led air strikes), was an intimate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaeda who dispatched him to the jihad in Syria. Except that if you listen to administration officials long enough, you come away thinking that Zawahiri is not really al-Qaeda, either. Instead, he’s something the administration is at pains to call “core al-Qaeda.””
Now, I want to digress back to the point where Assad went from Hillary’s reformer to Obama’s enemy #1 in Syria. To that end the Obama administration decided that the way forward was to pick a winner in the Syrian civil war, their illusive Syrian “moderates”. Accusations against the Assad regime over chemical weapons attacks hit the news and President Obama publicly declared Assad’s forces as the perpetrator before an actual investigation was conducted. Media hysteria ensued, Obama’s version became the de facto ground truth of the matter, a UN investigation concluded chemical weapons were used, but hedged on assigning blame, but the Obama administration ignored some very serious facts. The following is a list of Nightwatch links for 2012 on the chemical attack reporting and status of fact-finding:
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000185.aspx
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000186.aspx
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000189.aspx
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000195.aspx
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000198.aspx
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000199.aspx – read this one carefully!
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000200.aspx – another important report
Thanks to JK’s careful compilations of links, because I am an amateur, with no training in intelligence analysis, but here’s the trend I see in the Nightwatch approach vs the Obama administration – Nightwatch posts information and carefully partitions comments and suppositions from facts. The Obama administration relies on creating “narratives”, then making up lies to bolster the narrative. In these Nightwatch reports it becomes clear that the UN investigation encountered a tampered with site to investigate in 2012 and they found a 330mm rocket body, which the Syrian Army does not use. Here’s a link which does show a country which has a 330mm missile in its arsenal. By 2013, Global Reseach, an independent research and media company in Canada, reported: “Syria: UN Mission Report Confirms that “Opposition” Rebels Used Chemical Weapons against Civilians and Government Forces”.
Seymour Hersh wrote a piece aptly titled, “Whose Sarin?“, stating:
“Barack Obama did not tell the whole story this autumn when he tried to make the case that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August. In some instances, he omitted important intelligence, and in others he presented assumptions as facts. Most significant, he failed to acknowledge something known to the US intelligence community: that the Syrian army is not the only party in the country’s civil war with access to sarin, the nerve agent that a UN study concluded – without assessing responsibility – had been used in the rocket attack. In the months before the attack, the American intelligence agencies produced a series of highly classified reports, culminating in a formal Operations Order – a planning document that precedes a ground invasion – citing evidence that the al-Nusra Front, a jihadi group affiliated with al-Qaida, had mastered the mechanics of creating sarin and was capable of manufacturing it in quantity. When the attack occurred al-Nusra should have been a suspect, but the administration cherry-picked intelligence to justify a strike against Assad.”
At the same time the president was selling us the “moderates” trope put forth by O’Bagy as the Syrian resistance mouthpiece, other reports were painting a very different picture of the Syrian resistance, “Syria: nearly half rebel fighters are jihadists or hardline Islamists, says IHS Jane’s report”. O’Bagy vs IHS Jane’s, humm, well since I have been trusting Jane’s for decades and O’Bagy was serving as the State Department Syria subject matter expert at the same time she was serving as the political director for a pro-Syrian resistance lobbying group, all while pretending to possess a doctorate from Georgetown University, let’s see, tough choice on whose intelligence to believe, right? The disturbing reports that some Syrian rebels (definitely not “moderates”) had mastered creating sarin never got picked up by our docile, distinctly incurious, journalists, who rely on White House narratives and dutifully report, but rarely investigate or fact-check.
Other alarming reports surfaced of less than moderate Syrian rebels, like the viral video of the rebel commander cutting the heart from the chest of a fallen foe and eating it, but alas that too raised no alarm bells at the White House. A BBC reporter, Paul Wood, interviewed the commander, Abu Sakkar, and relates the commander’s bio as a former Free Syrian Army commander, who broke away and started his own battalion. The reporter interviewed the chief of staff of the Free Syrian Army, Salim Adris, on this incident and rather than condemnation he stated:
“We condemn what he did,” said the general. “But why do our friends in the West focus on this when thousands are dying? We are a revolution not a structured army. If we were, we would have expelled Abu Sakkar. But he commands his own battalion, which he raised with his own money. Is the West asking me now to fight Abu Sakkar and force him out of the revolution? I beg for some understanding here.””
Now we have pretend “moderates” conniving to receive American arms, then immediately recanting their “moderate” status upon receiving American arms and training. This is the situation in Syria, home base of Obama’s new enemy #1 – ISIL/ISIS/IS (rebranding confusion for the former al Qaeda in Iraq group). Where are the Syrian “moderates”, well, in this increasingly brutal civil war, “moderates” either fled the country or are dead is my best guess. So, along with the psychopaths and terrorists, we now have ISIL/ISIS/IS, who purportedly is even a little too radical for what the Obama administration rebranded “core al Qaeda”, not to be confused with the al Qaeda terrorist entity they proclaimed decimated. President Obama wants these elusive Syrian “moderates” to be the boots on the ground in his war against ISIL/ISIS/IS. Where he will find them one can safely guess – not in Syria. Lies and rebranding run amok, just to sell the American public a make-believe narrative, because of their complete and total failure to read intelligence reports thoroughly and listen to real intelligence expertise before deciding on grave American foreign policy matters. College campus radicals running a war brings to mind Sun Tzu warnings (yes, I just love my Sun Tzu):
12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring misfortune upon his army:–
13. (1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat, being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey. This is called hobbling the army.
14. (2) By attempting to govern an army in the same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes restlessness in the soldier’s minds.
15. (3) By employing the officers of his army without discrimination, through ignorance of the military principle of adaptation to circumstances. This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.
16. But when the army is restless and distrustful, trouble is sure to come from the other feudal princes. This is simply bringing anarchy into the army, and flinging victory away.
17. Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. (2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. (3) He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. (4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. (5) He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.
18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Filed under Culture Wars, Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics, Uncategorized
The Chechen contribution
Here’s a report from Global Security.org, “Behind Islamic State’s Battlefield Gains, Battle-Hardened Chechens”, which explains the Chechen contribution to the Islamic State’s successful military engagements. The report states:
“The Chechens aren’t the largest group among the thousands of foreigners in Syria, but they may be playing an outsized role, as many, battle-hardened by years fighting Russian forces, help spearhead the Islamic State’s sweeping successes through Syria and Iraq, experts said.
This bodes poorly not only for U.S. efforts to roll back the Islamic State in the near term, but also could mean a new cycle of violence is looming for Russia’s long-troubled North Caucasus.”
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics
Seeking cover from air strikes
As I stated yesterday, ISIL/ISIS/IS will adapt to air strikes and just this morning here’s a Washington Times report:
“U.S. airstrikes prompt Islamic State to move positions, hide among civilians”
This pattern is well-known by military planners, but obviously the Obama administration doesn’t listen to them. Of course, this move by the terrorists makes it impossible to attack them from the air without increasing collateral damage. The air strikes will provide a wealth of propaganda value for the terrorists, if we attack them in populated areas and the other winner from Obama’s strategy is Assad, who is busily regaining some ground in Syria. The only side who won’t benefit from this air campaign is the United States.
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics
Convenient optics of war
Ideas abound on how to fight ISIS and one of the oddest ones came from Bill O’Reilly this week. He proposes we form an international mercenary army to be the “boots on the ground” to bolster President Obama’s comprehensive strategy to destroy ISIS and wage the long war against terrorism.. He envisions American military personnel commanding this force, while other countries and the US provide funding. So, while President Obama guts our already trained force, Bill O’Reilly wants to embark on this “well-paid international force”, yes, well, okay, it’s time for one of those boring LB personal stories.
Long ago, when I was a young soldier stationed in Germany, my soon to be husband decided we should fly back to the States to get married. We got married in my little country church in the mountains of PA and then headed back to Germany. We had a little German apartment and a lot of my kitchen accessories came from a sergeant who sold the whole shebang real cheap, because he was in a hurry to leave. My memory is a little hazy on the exact details, but the story went something like this sergeant had taken leave to go back to the States too, except he was attending the funeral of his brother, I believe. His brother had been shot by some other guy. This sergeant shot the guy who shot his brother and flew back to Germany and quickly left. He told my husband he was going to try to join the French Foreign Legion. Of course, the other person we’ve recently heard about trying to join the French Foreign Legion was Bowe Bergdahl. Rumors swirled about the sergeant we knew and most of the rumors said he was accepted. From Bergdahl’s saga we learned he was turned down. One can only wonder what experience O’Reilly has with mercenary forces and aside from that, one can only wonder if he has followed the controversy of US forces training foreign soldiers, like the School of the Americas, but even more recently, the quite lackluster results of our efforts to train the Afghan and Iraqi security forces. The last thing the US military needs to do is command an international mercenary force – good grief! American credibility is already at an all-time low and trying to outsource national defense to some mercenary force sure won’t help restore our national honor.
Since only political calculations move President Obama to act, it’s obvious that the only thing motivating him to use military force against ISIS is the upcoming elections. Retired US Marine Corps Commandant, James Conway stated,“I don’t think the president’s plan has a snowball’s chance in hell of succeeding,” which pretty succinctly assesses the plan as described by Obama political flunkies.
If history is prelude, then Afghanistan should clue us in on how President Obama wages war. In Afghanistan he blathered on proclaiming that the “good war”. He came up with a strategy, ostensibly, to win that war too. That plan involved an ambitious winning the hearts and minds of the people of Afghanistan, ramped up counterinsurgency activity, and a surge modeled after the successful Iraqi surge. Of course, as with all military matters in Obama world, the advice of the top generals was disregarded, in lieu of White House politicos, with their vast (*laugh*) knowledge on military affairs. Alas, he never delivered on the full-troop strength promised for that surge and he pulled the plug on that plan, declared an end to the war with a change in rhetorical flourish – “end this war responsibly”, a definite new vision,where we pack up our military and leave the battlefield, thus ending the war………. leaving the enemy still there fighting.
Iraq followed a similar decision-making trajectory, where against the advice of his top military commanders, President Obama declared Iraq stable and its security forces able to stand alone. Out came American forces, political instability ensued, the security forces weren’t able to stand alone and along came a determined terrorist army to capitalize on the power vacuum. Of course, I could throw in the debacle that is Libya, which thanks to President Obama’s disastrous regime change strategy there, it now joins the growing list of failed states and hospitable safe havens for terrorists. Every military decision he has made was short-sighted, was not in America’s national interest, was based on completely skewed understanding of the historical realities, the present realities on the ground and utilized cherry-picked intelligence. The political left shrieked for years about President Bush lying about Saddam Hussein’s WMD as a pretext to invade Iraq, but their silence is deafening on President Obama’s chronic lies about intelligence data and willful disregard of intelligence that doesn’t bolster his politics.
The air campaign, as sold to us, won’t work. Long ago, in Iraq we won a decisive military victory over Saddam Hussein, but the decision was made not to go on to Baghdad and remove him from power. What ensued was a long, attempt to keep Saddam boxed in using American air power, with periodic escalations, and a domestic political propaganda here at home, assuring us this policy was working. Administrations changed and President Clinton, humanitarian-in-chief, felt the military approach was hurting Iraqi civilians, leading to his promoting the UN oil-for-food program, to relieve the suffering. As with all these UN programs, Saddam quickly corrupted this program, the Iraqi civilians still suffered and we maintained the “no-fly zones”. Our air approach never really weakened Saddam’s power in Iraq.
We could also take a look at President Clinton’s air campaign in Kosovo – another dubious American military adventure, where we were sold a whole lot of half-baked “facts” about Serbian atrocities, we began aiding the KLA (radical Islamists with ties to Al Qaeda), made decisions based on political motivations rather than fact-based intelligence estimates and there again was another American President stating, “no American boots on the ground!”, choosing to rely on air power alone for political reasons, NOT militarily sound judgment. Aside from all the lies about the political realities amongst the various indigenous factions in the Balkans, the air approach demonstrated that we quickly run out of strategic targets and the forces on the ground remain impervious to air attacks. They adapt and learn to work around American air power.
You can fast forward to post 9/11 uses of air power and the same reality hits us in the face – from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya, back to Iraq and now into Syria. Air power as part of a comprehensive strategic use of military force that includes American troops on the ground can achieve real military successes; air power alone can’t. These lessons learned are so obvious that even your average American news viewer should have gleaned this.
President Obama’s hesitant, wobbly start of an air war, where he chose to rely on political consultants rather than trained warfighters sent the message to the world and especially to ISIS that he is not serious about this fight. His plan provides political theater for the November elections, just convenient optics of war to fit his narrative about being tough on fighting ISIS. A responsible CINC would have gone to Congress and begged to put the military draw-down on hold, in light of being faced with a gravely unstable Middle East. A responsible CINC would have looked to America itself and recognized that securing our borders heads the list of steps necessary to provide security for Americans here at home. All the other tracking efforts internally to locate potential terrorists and plots seems ludicrous if he deliberately leaves the doors open on the border. Energy independence ranks high up on the national security list too and there again, this president prefers to rely on low-wattage ideas and tilting at windmills as our future. He really did mean war.
Filed under Culture Wars, Foreign Policy, General Interest, Military, Politics, Uncategorized
Dissecting Obama’s “comprehensive strategy”
Whose side is President Obama on? We’ve witnessed the results of his unerring ability to choose the side that harms American national interests the most, leaving American prestige at an all-time low and forcing Secretary of State, John Kerry, to scurry around trying to drum up a “coalition” to help fight ISIS. From CIA director, John Brennan, proclaiming the Muslim Brotherhood “mostly secular” to WH National Security Advisor, Susan Rice proclaiming Bowe Bergdahl a “hero” to the present brouhaha over Syrian “moderates”, it should be obvious to everyone that this administration’s cognitive dissonance behavior pattern is to refute facts with absurd fabricated narratives, deflect attention by creating new straw men to set ablaze, or revert to their default avoidance tactic – blame GWB.
Yesterday I began fuming when I read a Bergdahl update in the NY Post, which stated:
“But a senior Army official told me court-martialing Bergdahl would “make the president look bad.” In spite of damning evidence against him, the official expects Pentagon brass to separate him from the military with a less-than-honorable discharge, sparing Obama total embarrassment.”
This administration is playing a big game of charades again, just like the Benghazi YouTube video narrative to explain away their multiple security failures, their decision not to attempt a rescue of their besieged annex, but mostly to cover-up what exactly the mission was at that annex (gun-running from Libya to Syria). This time the facade is a “strategy to destroy ISIS”, yes, indeedy, his loyal minions began that by spending the first 48 hours arguing that this isn’t a “war” and therein lies the truth – this CINC is callously using American troops as propaganda tools. Every shred of military planning that makes sense to achieve that objective has been tossed into Obama’s eco-friendly recyclable waste basket. He’s ostensibly planning a multi-year plan for military action by discarding all of the recommendations from his top generals? Those first 48 hours arguing that this isn’t a “war” should clue you in that you’re watching another pathetic propaganda move to pretend he is doing something about ISIS, without having the guts to really do something. What he is really doing is waiting out the clock on the press and American public’s attention span, because he knows front page stories fade and the public moves on, happy to forget yesterday’s news. His generals are gumming up the works, by speaking out about the lack of a winning “war” plan, but they should realize by now, that this CINC ignores all of their advice. The reports about the WH intention to control bombing targets in Syria make sense, because he wants to be able to stop this “not war” once the public clamor about the gruesome beheadings’ optics dies down.
This administration lives by polling data, believing that if they can weather the media storm now, the public will lose interest and then it becomes very easy to dismiss those who bring up the matter later as partisan haters, intent on harming the President. The press willingly plays along, as evidenced by no real answers or accountability from ‘fast and furious” to the present. Even Bergdahl’s fate has been put on ice until the administration can quietly shuffle him out of uniform with at most, not-so-smiley face discharge papers in hand. Once you learn the lingo these Obama mouthpieces use, the moves make sense – it’s about their narratives, their optics, their agenda.
Info on the gas attacks in Syria last year – pay attention to the comments section
Benghazi – the real mission (here and here)
Syrian moderates (Bryan Preston and Patrick Poole – excellent reporting)
Filed under Culture Wars, Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics, The Media
Krauthammer: Obama micromanagement of military strikes is “scary stuff”
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics
Panetta: U.S. needed to stay in Iraq, too slow engaging in Syria | WashingtonExaminer.com
Panetta: U.S. needed to stay in Iraq, too slow engaging in Syria | WashingtonExaminer.com.
Always pays to keep your options open, so Panetta is auditioning for a starring role in a future HRC administration. The full scorched earth mode hasn’t been ignited yet. If there is an ISIS attack on American soil, it will kick in, as Dems and former Obama administration officials rush to throw gasoline on the flames that will engulf this lame duck President.
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Military, Politics
Pentagon: “If we like our war plan, can we keep it?”
Truly, is anyone surprised that President Obama’s battle plan roll-out makes the many glitches with his Affordable Care Act look trivial in comparison? Perhaps, the top brass need to start asking the White House, “if we like our war plan, can we keep it?” Today we learn that the Obama administration reached all the way back to LBJ and picking bombing targets from the White House, as the way to run his air campaign in Syria. The Last Refuge did a good summary of events, with links to the news sources (here). Let’s hope the senior administration official who thinks Saudi Arabia shares a long border with Syria isn’t part of the inner-circle planning bombing targets.
Filed under Foreign Policy, General Interest, Islam, Military, Politics, Uncategorized