Category Archives: Islam

“A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma” (the Obama war plan)

The war against ISIL/ISIS/IS continues to muddle along.  So, it looks like the Obama administration decided to put more effort into helping the Kurds fight for Kobani, whilst ISIL/ISIS/IS decided to strike on towards Baghdad.  We like our fights broken down into good guys vs bad guys, but in that region of the world, a lot fall into the bad guy group, very few into the good guy group, and a disconcerting number switch sides, hold dual loyalties, or can easily be bought, making choosing sides decidedly difficult.  Turkey finally agreed to allow aid for the Kurds at Kobani to flow through Turkey.  However, now the Syrian Kurds are angry about that.  Jamie Dettmer at Global Security.org reports:

“Syrian Kurdish leaders are pushing back on Turkey’s plan to allow Kurdish Peshmerga forces from northern Iraq to transit Turkish territory and to enter the besieged Syrian border town of Kobani to help in its defense.”

“Mideast politics is notoriously complex and among the most Byzantine involves the Kurdish political parties who vie for top-dog status and compete for the loyalty of all Kurds across Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.”

The Obama administration charged into this war as clueless about the realities on the ground as they consistently demonstrated with their “prescient analysis” (that’s a joke) of the Arab Spring and choosing winners and losers there.   We now are arming US designated terrorists in Kobani to fight the ISIL/ISIS/IS terrorists.  We are still searching for elusive “Syrian moderates” from which to build a paramilitary force to be the “boots on the ground” in Syria to fight ISIL/ISIS/IS, an endeavor which US Central Command commander, Lloyd Austin says will take time.  From McClatchyDC,  “U.S. general: ‘It’ll take time’ to train new Syria force, reclaim Iraq turf, defeat Islamic State”:

“U.S. officials have said the United States is only at the very beginning of creating a new Syrian paramilitary, which will be handpicked from the country’s hodgepodge of rebel forces whose first concern isn’t the Islamic State but their long struggle to overthrow the government of President Bashar Assad.

Austin certainly didn’t raise hopes about the prospects of a streamlined Syrian ground partner emerging anytime soon; at one point he referred to the goal as “hopefully, a force that we can train in Syria.”

The message couched in Austin’s remarks was clear: The existing Syrian rebel structure is untenable and the United States aims to build its own Syrian proxy – only this time, enemy No. 1 is the Islamic State instead of Assad. It remains unclear how many Syrian rebels would sign up on those terms. It’s even less clear how many of the current rebels the United States is courting, given their repeated battlefield coordination with the local al Qaida affiliate and other jihadists.”

To highlight the bizarre meanderings of Obama’s war plan, we are fighting ISIL/ISIS/IS in Iraq and Syria, while hoping to coax (bribe) some Syrian rebel groups to help us, even though they and ISIL/ISIS/IS are Sunnis and mutually see Assad as their #1 enemy.  Any ground we force ISIL to cede in Syria, Assad is the only one with forces prepared to take advantage of, so our air strikes will, in reality, aid Assad.  In Iraq, we are arming Kurdish fighters in Kobani who are members of an US designated terrorist entity – the PKK.  In Baghdad, the weak government is relying on Iranian-backed Shiite militias – from this same McClatchyDC report:

“The weak Baghdad government is now forced into relying on Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim militias and untrained volunteers to fill the security vacuum. That’s led to an indirect U.S.-Iranian partnership against the Islamic State, translating into the U.S. military providing air cover for the same Shiite militiamen who not too many years ago were killing American soldiers.”

A news report yesterday stated that ISIL had launched mortar attacks against the US embassy in Baghdad, yet President Obama’s focus is on Kobani.  We’re reliant on our small contingent of American “boots on the ground”, the Iraqi security forces who run away from ISIL and Iranian-backed militants if ISIL launches a multi-pronged attack on our embassy and/or Baghdad.  Of course, I am sure that now that Valerie Jarrett is back on the job, recovering from back surgery, President Obama and the girls at the WH will make stupendous military decisions…….  Childhood memories of the fall of Saigon popped into my mind, along with teenage memories of the Iranian hostage situation, followed by adult memories of my total disgust and anger at watching the Clinton presidential policy disgrace at Mogadishu.  Now, we have this slow-motion disaster unfolding and where is the press at figuring out the big picture strategic disaster looming ahead???

The Last Refuge blog ran a post titled, “Lavrov’s Paradox”, highlighting that if you’re confused with who we’re arming in Obama’s war, you’re not alone.  Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, described it as follows from a CNS report, “Russian FM: We and the US Are Arming Opposing Sides in Syrian Conflict”:

“Meanwhile the U.S.-led coalition was both bombing Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) terrorists and providing armed support “to the opposition forces fighting the Bashar Assad regime alongside the Islamic State,” he said.

“The U.S. considers this support ‘moderate’ and therefore acceptable,” Lavrov continued. “Its purpose is to help the Syrian opposition achieve the potential to overthrow the current regime in Syria. The controversial and paradoxical nature of these actions is obvious, in my view. We have been discussing this with our U.S. counterparts, trying to understand their logic, but have not received any clear explanations so far.””

Don’t worry, surely, “I voted for the $87 billion, before I voted against it” Kerry will untangle this Gordian knot of a strategy……  And President Obama with his girls at the WH will compose a winning narrative….  Too bad real American servicemembers will pay the price for the looming, inevitable failure, while the leader from behind plays golf.  Meanwhile, Lavrov and Putin will continue to ponder the American paradox and bizarre detour from geopolitical realities, like trying to define Obama’s understanding of American national interests.  And to think, the West used to find the Russians perplexing:

“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”  – Winston Churchill (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/a_riddle_wrapped_up_in_an_enigma)

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Ebola’s spread and Islamic burial rituals – The American Thinker

Oh-oh! This is the most politically incorrect dimension of the spread of Ebola in West Africa. Which is why you won’t see any of the mainstream media touch it with a ten foot pole.  Paul Sperry reports in Investor’s Business Daily:….

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News Headlines

CNN reports: “Texas health worker is positive for Ebola, would be 1st Ebola transmission in U.S.”

McClatchy DC News reports: “U.S. commander does abrupt about-face on American troops’ contact with Ebola patients”

McClatchy DC news again: “More misinformation on the NSA”

UK’s Mail Online provides a Kobane update (lots of pictures): “ISIS pour reinforcements into border town of Kobane after Kurdish forces halt their advance”

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Another half-baked cakewalk

At National Review today there’s a piece by Matthew Continetti, “Accept No Substitutions“, pounding the same old neocon drum for more military adventurism in the Mid-East.  Like many with no military experience, Continetti falls prey to the Kagans overly simplistic strategic posturing:

“If only. A future president — and with the way Obama is handling the Middle East, we will be dealing with the Islamic State and other hazards for many years indeed — needs to take a look at the strategic plan devised by Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute and Kimberly Kagan and Jessica Lewis of the Institute for the Study of War.

“U.S. forces need to play the role of honest broker once again, as they did in 2007 and 2008,” the Kagans wrote recently in the Los Angeles Times. “But they can only play that role if they are present.” The Kagans say 25,000 troops are necessary to reverse enemy gains.”

I posted the first comment there, under my other alias, “mhere”, rambling on rather longish, giving my two cents worth:

“American ground troops most certainly can provide a winning “military” strategy against ISIS, but herein lies the same dilemma we’ve faced since removing the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, and Gadaffi from power – there is no political solution in sight to insure stability in the aftermath. The Kagans and their neocon friends brought us the “cakewalk” in the Iraq prognostications and recently penned a power point plan in the Weekly Standard, http://www.weeklystandard.com/….”

“A year ago, Frederick Kagan wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/…, urging arming the ever elusive Syrian “moderates”. Both Kagans are supposed military “experts”, but his concern in this piece was the flagging morale of the Syrian rebels, not the morale of our American troops. Both failed to address the more important strategic dilemma in Syria, which ISIS now glaringly highlights – removing odious secular autocrats in the Mid-East isn’t a challenge for US military might. However, leaving gaping power vacuums only exacerbates the “providing safe havens for terrorists”, which rests as a real threat to our national security. Here’s the rub, that no one talks about – Assad posed no real threat to American national security. Certainly he does Iran’s bidding, but he wasn’t making pronouncements inciting “Death to America”. Our President lied about the WMD intelligence in 2012, assigning blame to Assad before an investigation was even conducted and reporters beyond Seymour Hersh should be asking, “Whose Sarin?” (google his article by that title and then research that one).”

“Unless our “strategic thinking” moves beyond simplistic power point presentations, such as the Kagans plan, we will remain mired in Mid-East quagmires. Our military abilities far exceed our long-range strategic thinking and defeating a foe is far easier than “preserving states”, so perhaps we need to think more about the end goals. Military occupations unto perpetuity will only fuel the jihadist movement.

If we sit back and let ISIS run its course, then those Shia and Sunni power-brokers in the neighborhood will be forced to act. We should secure our borders, work toward energy independence, rebuild our military, which suffers from over a decade of wear and tear, and work on some long-range strategic-brainstorming. I don’t want America to be the “mercenary” air force for either side in the larger Sunni-Shia battle, which is what is happening now. In the current configuration, we’ve switched sides and are providing air support to help Assad regain ground in Syria, because he has “boots on the ground” ready to capitalize on our air strikes against ISIS. The mullahs in Iran probably are sitting there laughing at how easily we’ve been drawn in by ISIS propaganda videos.”

“Our troops deserve better strategic-thinking than the Kagans simplistic power point presentations and war by disingenuous slogans. No more cakewalks, shock and awe, winning the hearts and minds, please!”

Another commenter, verity, followed my comment with this much shorter, but very succinct insight:

“Look, when something like ISIS happens;

– You first send out a scout to the region to sound out the Arabs.
– Your scout comes back and says to your POTUS: “No life in these guys, forget it.”
– You gracefully bow out, and announce to the whole world that the Arabs don’t intend to do anything.
– Then the Arabs either start to shriek their denial, or they continue to comfortably sit on their $hit.
– If you collect some serious shrieks, you subscribe them to your coalition -and not on easy terms.

Then, you have something going. Your POTUS goes up there and says: “The Arabs have a strategy, we decided to help.””

Let’s deal with the glaringly obvious problem with President Obama’s air war, the problem is not a lack of “boots on the ground”; the problem is a lack of a coherent strategy.  We need a better plan that includes both little picture and big picture strategic-planning, not more overly simplistic neoconservative power point presentations.

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Islamic State expanding?

Here’s a newsflash from Global Security, “Islamic State Militants First Seen in Derna, Eastern Libya: Reports”. President Obama’s other great air campaign left a gaping power vacuum in Libya, which Islamist crazies will fill. This latest report was sourced to Ria Novosti.  Al Arabiya posted an article with a 3:46 length video of  a “parade” yesterday  in Derna by Islamists proclaiming allegiance to the Islamic State.  There were lots of pick-up trucks that looked the same to me in the couple of minutes that I watched, leading me to wonder if they were just circling the block.  Of course, professionals in our intelligence have already probably analyzed this video and made all the proper assessments on the size of the parade and other pertinent information.  Came across another article,“Is Derna becoming an Islamist emirate?”, reporting a similar parade with pick-up trucks in Derna earlier this year. In that parade a group called, “Shura Council of Islamist Youth in Derna”, proclaimed Sharia law.

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The impolite questions

Reader warning: This is going to be a politically incorrect post

So, here’s another Washington Post headline: “Family of former U.S. Army Ranger held hostage by Islamic State plead for his life”.  Well, the first thing to jump out at me was the photo of  Mom and Dad Kassig, parents of the former U.S. Army Ranger being held hostage by ISIS.  Mom Kassig is wearing a head scarf in deference to her son’s captors’ religious, please God, don’t let me choke on this word, sensitivities.  The article quotes the parents pleas to their son’s captors.

The headline highlights the American captive’s military service, yet, here I was wondering definitely cold-hearted things, like how in the hell did this “former U.S. Army Ranger” end up being a hostage.  Well, just like in the Bowe Bergdahl situation, it’s best to avoid asking questions like this, “why in the hell was he in Syria?”  Okay, here’s a small loose thread, which this story left hanging:

“Peter Kassig’s family said he was in the region doing humanitarian work when he disappeared a year ago near the city of Raqqah in eastern Syria.”

Sounds great, he was doing humanitarian work and the next question was with whom was he working, because humanitarian work sounds good, benign, non-political, right?  Move on LB, don’t ask questions, just accept the feel-good story the press presented, be angry that an American patriot is being held captive by barbarians, because that’s the message the headline wanted you to get.

So, Kassig was near Raqqah doing good works when he was captured by ISIS a year ago, who along with the Free Syrian Army and the al-Nusrah front overran government forces in Raqqah.  With whom was Kassig doing humanitarian works near Raqqah, that’s my question.  Here’s one other elusive loose thread, which the reporter didn’t tug on, “The militant then threatened to kill Kassig, a Muslim convert, because of U.S. bombing of Islamic State targets in Syria.”  Aha, Kassig was a Muslim convert, with U.S.Army Ranger training just trekking all the way to Syria to do humanitarian works with whom?  Was he with some aid group?  Or maybe he wanted to join the elusive Syrian moderates, perish the thought that he might have joined the jihad – that would be unthinkable….

Okay, let me add my question about the humanitarian works of Kassig – Sera, his relief organization he founded – it seems hokey to me, there you have it – just a weird female hunch thing.  Lots of red flags – the web page seems amateur, very skimpy on details.  Updated in 2014 that the organization’s operations are temporarily ceased.  How many people work (volunteer) for this organization or was it a one man show?  Maybe Kassig was like Bergdahl – angry at the US military actions in the Muslim world, yes, that question popped into my head.  Enough politically-incorrect thoughts for one dayLB (yes, I am talking to myself, lol) – just accept the picture the media paints and move quietly along.

Sorry still googling and found this Time exposé from January 2013, “An Army Ranger Helps Syrian Refugees”, on Kassig’s Sera humanitarian relief organization – sounds like a one-man show effort.  Here’s some tantalizing threads to consider from this Time piece:

“What have you been doing during your time in Lebanon?

I started by travelling as much as possible throughout the country and focusing my efforts on volunteering on a small scale in a Palestinian refugee camp in South Beirut. I wanted to try and understand the full scope of the level of need and what role I could potentially have in meeting that need. I also volunteer in a hospital in Tripoli, Lebanon, offering my services as a trauma medic to Syrian refugees who have been wounded in the fighting in Syria. From these experiences I began the development of my NGO, SERA, which stands for Special Emergency Response and Assistance. I divide by time between my personal volunteer efforts, my organizations relief operations, which include the distribution of aid materials such as medical equipment and children’s clothing, as well as food and cooking materials in both Lebanon and Syria.”(my highlight)

Oh yes, nothing political in his humanitarian good works, humm.

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Turkey Must Tread Carefully Against Islamic State

Turkey Must Tread Carefully Against Islamic State.

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Misunderstanding al Qaeda – The Long War Journal

Misunderstanding al Qaeda – The Long War Journal.

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Marching into battle without foot soldiers….

If you live in leftist lalaland and rely on the Obama administration to explain unfolding current events around the globe, the world appears to be a frightening, unpredictable, mysterious swirl of sudden storms of new threats breaking on the horizon.  Semantics carries more weight in leftist circles than substance, with political considerations tipping the scales on proclaiming and enforcing the speech code in America.  Decades of experience with this tyrannical policing of our language from hyphenated American nomenclature, to more devious castigating former soldiers as potential terrorists, to designating a real terrorist attack on American soil merely a mundane case of workplace violence conditioned Americans to accept parsing to advance the Left’s political agenda.  The political right writes scathing commentary about politically correct speech, but the political left controls the media and academia to such an extent that these battles always end with the new politically correct terminology becoming the approved version in American public life.

In Syria, this reclassification process followed President Obama’s fluctuating stance on the ongoing civil war there.  As you may recall, President Bashar al Assad went from being Hillary Clinton’s “reformer” in Syria to President Obama’s persona non grata, after declaring Assad used chemical weapons against his own people (before actual investigations were even completed).  Thus we went from Kerry flying to Syria in 2009 to meet with his dear friend”  Assad to  a rebranded Assad,  a threat to humanity in the vein of Hitler, if you listen to Obama spokespeople.  In the midst of this Syria policy flip-flop, a cadre of neoconservative mouthpieces, Syrian rebel advocacy lobbyists and Obama sycophants took on the task of selling the solution to the Forlorn Hope that is the Syrian civil war, yes, we were introduced to the Syrian “moderates”, explained to us by Syrian expert par excellence, Elizabeth O’Bagy, who provided both the American public and the Obama White House with her detailed maps of Syrian forces and her smiling assertions that Syrian “moderates” made up the bulk of the Syrian resistance (see LB archives: here, here, here, here).

President Obama makes declarations on world affairs based on personal political expediency, totally devoid of facts and reality,  where his minions refer to their “narratives” and worry over the “optics”, like OCD little stage managers in a junior high school play (to go along with junior varsity terrorist threats).  Not ones to rest on their laurels, the Obama administration now introduced us to The Khorosan Group in Syria, a brand spanking new terrorist entity.  Andrew McCarthy put the kibosh on this latest Obama administration fabrication, bluntly calling the White House on their deception.  Mr. McCarthy in “The Khorosan Group Does Not Exist” writes:

“There is a reason that no one had heard of such a group until a nanosecond ago, when the “Khorosan Group” suddenly went from anonymity to the “imminent threat” that became the rationale for an emergency air war there was supposedly no time to ask Congress to authorize.

You haven’t heard of the Khorosan Group because there isn’t one. It is a name the administration came up with, calculating that Khorosan — the –Iranian–​Afghan border region — had sufficient connection to jihadist lore that no one would call the president on it.

The “Khorosan Group” is al-Qaeda. It is simply a faction within the global terror network’s Syrian franchise, “Jabhat al-Nusra.” Its leader, Mushin al-Fadhli (believed to have been killed in this week’s U.S.-led air strikes), was an intimate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaeda who dispatched him to the jihad in Syria. Except that if you listen to administration officials long enough, you come away thinking that Zawahiri is not really al-Qaeda, either. Instead, he’s something the administration is at pains to call “core al-Qaeda.””

Now, I want to digress back to the point where Assad went from Hillary’s reformer to Obama’s enemy #1 in Syria.  To that end the Obama administration decided that the way forward was to pick a winner in the Syrian civil war, their illusive Syrian “moderates”.   Accusations against the Assad regime over chemical weapons attacks hit the news and President Obama publicly declared Assad’s forces as the perpetrator before an actual investigation was conducted.   Media hysteria ensued,  Obama’s version became the de facto ground truth of the matter, a UN investigation concluded chemical weapons were used, but hedged on assigning blame, but the Obama administration ignored some very serious facts.  The following is a list of Nightwatch links for 2012 on the chemical attack reporting and status of fact-finding:

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000185.aspx

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000186.aspx

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000189.aspx

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000195.aspx

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000198.aspx

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000199.aspx – read this one carefully!

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000200.aspx – another important report

Thanks to JK’s careful compilations of links, because I am an amateur, with no training in intelligence analysis, but here’s the trend I see in the Nightwatch approach vs the Obama administration – Nightwatch posts information and carefully partitions comments and suppositions from facts.  The Obama administration relies on creating “narratives”, then making up lies to bolster the narrative.  In these Nightwatch reports it becomes clear that the UN investigation encountered a tampered with site to investigate in 2012 and they found a 330mm rocket body, which the Syrian Army does not use.  Here’s a link which does show a country which has a 330mm missile in its arsenal.    By 2013, Global Reseach, an independent research and media company in Canada, reported: “Syria: UN Mission Report Confirms that “Opposition” Rebels Used Chemical Weapons against Civilians and Government Forces”. 
Seymour Hersh wrote a piece aptly titled, “Whose Sarin?“, stating:

“Barack Obama did not tell the whole story this autumn when he tried to make the case that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August. In some instances, he omitted important intelligence, and in others he presented assumptions as facts. Most significant, he failed to acknowledge something known to the US intelligence community: that the Syrian army is not the only party in the country’s civil war with access to sarin, the nerve agent that a UN study concluded – without assessing responsibility – had been used in the rocket attack. In the months before the attack, the American intelligence agencies produced a series of highly classified reports, culminating in a formal Operations Order – a planning document that precedes a ground invasion – citing evidence that the al-Nusra Front, a jihadi group affiliated with al-Qaida, had mastered the mechanics of creating sarin and was capable of manufacturing it in quantity. When the attack occurred al-Nusra should have been a suspect, but the administration cherry-picked intelligence to justify a strike against Assad.”

At the same time the president was selling us the “moderates” trope put forth by O’Bagy as the Syrian resistance mouthpiece, other reports were painting a very different picture of the Syrian resistance, “Syria: nearly half rebel fighters are jihadists or hardline Islamists, says IHS Jane’s report”.  O’Bagy vs IHS Jane’s, humm, well since I have been trusting Jane’s for decades and O’Bagy was serving as the State Department Syria subject matter expert at the same time she was serving as the political director for a pro-Syrian resistance lobbying group, all while pretending to possess a doctorate from Georgetown University, let’s see, tough choice on whose intelligence to believe, right?  The disturbing reports that some Syrian rebels (definitely not “moderates”) had mastered creating sarin  never got picked up by our docile, distinctly incurious, journalists, who rely on White House narratives and dutifully report, but rarely investigate or fact-check.

Other alarming reports surfaced of less than moderate Syrian rebels, like the viral video of the rebel commander cutting the heart from the chest of a fallen foe and eating it, but alas that too raised no alarm bells at the White House.  A BBC reporter, Paul Wood,  interviewed the commander, Abu  Sakkar, and relates the commander’s bio as a former Free Syrian Army commander, who broke away and started his own battalion.  The reporter interviewed the chief of staff of the Free Syrian Army, Salim Adris, on this incident and rather than condemnation he stated:

“We condemn what he did,” said the general. “But why do our friends in the West focus on this when thousands are dying? We are a revolution not a structured army. If we were, we would have expelled Abu Sakkar. But he commands his own battalion, which he raised with his own money. Is the West asking me now to fight Abu Sakkar and force him out of the revolution? I beg for some understanding here.””

Now we have pretend  “moderates” conniving to receive American arms, then immediately recanting their “moderate” status upon receiving American arms and training.  This is the situation in Syria, home base of Obama’s new enemy #1 – ISIL/ISIS/IS (rebranding confusion for the former al Qaeda in Iraq group).  Where are the Syrian “moderates”, well, in this increasingly brutal civil war, “moderates” either fled the country or are dead is my best guess.  So, along with the psychopaths and terrorists, we now have ISIL/ISIS/IS, who purportedly is even a little too radical for what the Obama administration rebranded “core al Qaeda”, not to be confused with the al Qaeda terrorist entity they proclaimed decimated.  President Obama wants these elusive Syrian “moderates” to be the boots on the ground in his war against ISIL/ISIS/IS.   Where he will find them one can safely guess – not in Syria.  Lies and rebranding run amok, just to sell  the American public a make-believe narrative, because of their complete and total failure to read intelligence reports thoroughly and listen to real intelligence expertise before deciding on grave American foreign policy matters.  College campus radicals running a war brings to mind Sun Tzu warnings (yes, I just love my Sun Tzu):

12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring misfortune upon his army:–

13. (1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat, being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey. This is called hobbling the army.

14. (2) By attempting to govern an army in the same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes restlessness in the soldier’s minds.

15. (3) By employing the officers of his army without discrimination, through ignorance of the military principle of adaptation to circumstances. This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.

16. But when the army is restless and distrustful, trouble is sure to come from the other feudal princes. This is simply bringing anarchy into the army, and flinging victory away.

17. Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. (2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. (3) He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. (4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. (5) He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.

18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

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The Chechen contribution

Here’s a report from Global Security.org, “Behind Islamic State’s Battlefield Gains, Battle-Hardened Chechens”, which explains the Chechen contribution to the Islamic State’s successful military engagements.  The report states:

“The Chechens aren’t the largest group among the thousands of foreigners in Syria, but they may be playing an outsized role, as many, battle-hardened by years fighting Russian forces, help spearhead the Islamic State’s sweeping successes through Syria and Iraq, experts said.

This bodes poorly not only for U.S. efforts to roll back the Islamic State in the near term, but also could mean a new cycle of violence is looming for Russia’s long-troubled North Caucasus.”

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