Category Archives: Military

Short Libya Update

Reuters reports:

“ROME (Reuters) – Western countries voiced concern on Thursday that tensions in Libya could slip out of control in the absence of a functioning political system, and they urged the government and rival factions to start talking.”

The American press rushes to cover the “breaking news”, while showing little inclination to stick with stories.  I wonder where Colin Powell is on the Libya debacle, since he so adamantly berated the Bush administration that “if you break it,  you bought it”.  Guess, that rule only applies to the Bush foreign policy adventures.  With this administration’s  topsy-turvy  gun policy, where this president wants to disarm American citizens, while secretly arming rebel factions in far-flung foreign locales, who can make sense of it all.  Was this President arming Ukraine rebels in the lead up to this crisis?  Anyone investigating this allegation?  No, of course not, this administration wouldn’t lie about gun-running……

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Expect the Russian marble game

What to do, what to do about the villain, Vladimir Putin?  Well, first, while it may sound like I am supporting Putin’s takeover of Crimea, I’m not.  I do understand Putin’s moves and respect how adroitly he made his moves though. NATO or any combination of Western leaders will not act and aside from hollow rhetoric and ineffective sanctions, Putin won’t pay much of a price for securing Russian control of Crimea.

How far he dares to encroach further into eastern Ukraine remains to be seen, but if past is prelude, sometimes the Russians push further to give themselves some negotiating space for later.  They may move further into eastern Ukraine, so they can pull back later and look reasonable, while still holding on to Crimea.  The Russians love playing games like this, “Here I took all your marbles, but hey, I’m a magnanimous sort, so I’ll give you back 2 and keep the other 10.”  Really, this is how the Russians bargain and it works for them among the ill-informed western media.

By and large, our leaders are outclassed and due to our internal political partisanship, our politicians remain impotent.  President Obama can’t make tough decisions and has surrounded himself with clueless, far-left loons, who have no grasp of history, geopolitics or strategic-planning.  It’s a complete bust for us.  Heck, the Russians are the likely source of the leak of our foul-mouthed diplomat’s phone conversation with our ambassador in Ukraine, thus spreading distrust  of the US among our European allies, again.  They know how to play the game and we aren’t even in the game anymore – sitting it out …. again.

We aren’t in a position to do much about Ukraine – that’s the reality.  What we need to do to prevent more provocative Russian moves or other countries deciding the US is no longer relevant is get our own house in order.  Here are some steps we need to take.  Energy independence needs to be a national security premiere objective.  Time to rebuild our relationships with our allies and we’ve got to start acting like a trustworthy ally.  Now, isn’t the time to start gutting our military.  We need to get our fiscal house in order and that will mean some painful, hard choices.  If we want to act with one voice abroad, we’ve got to find some common ground between our warring partisans at home.  To remain relevant will require a complete home remodel effort.  We need to rebuild the American team and so far, I don’t see that happening among our feuding political class.

Strength comes from being in a position to act, not react.  Putin knows how to act and others will watch this latest episode of American ineptitude and follow suit.  To thwart this, America needs to master a steep learning curve and I doubt this administration even understands the events unfolding around the world and their integral part in creating the atmosphere where the West, and particularly America,  is seen as a lot of irritating background noise, to tune out.  Weakness is provocative and this administration excels at projecting weakness.

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Ring of idiots

Oh my God, I don’t know how much more tripe I can take, yes, I am referring to the American chattering class – those pundits.  I will write more later today, but really, “A ring of democracy” to surround Russia – more like a ring of idiots spouting this crapola.  Meanwhile, our own State Department was meddling and Victoria Nuland was dictating to our ambassador to Ukraine, which protestors can be part of the new government…  Anyone else, see the hypocrisy???  The Russians will not cede control of Crimea and we shouldn’t expect them to.  We can’t expect them to cede their Black Sea Fleet to western democracy, some vague protestors chants of freedom or whatever it is these various groups in Ukraine want.  Do we even know what “freedom” looks like to people who only know corruption and living on government subsidies?  They’ve had plenty of time to form a viable democratic government and they’re still  a basket-case, so what’s going to change with the new regime?  Any western reporters checking out the Russian claim that 675,000 ethnic Russian have fled from Ukraine in the past month – to Russia? (Russian claim mentioned in Nightwatch) Any truth to that?  We need more facts and less overblown rhetoric.  Time to let go of he Cold War era thinking and use some new approaches.  More later.

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Speaking truth to insipid reporting

Here’s a must read on Ukraine:  “Ukraine Is Hopeless…But Not Serious”, in David P. Goldman’s, Spengler column at PJ Media.

Best lines:

“Ukraine isn’t a country: it’s a Frankenstein monster composed of pieces of dead empires, stitched together by Stalin. It has never had a government in the Western sense of the term after the collapse of the Soviet Union gave it independence, just the equivalent of the family offices for one predatory oligarch after another–including the “Gas Princess,” Yulia Tymoshenko.”

Here’s another:

“As for the Crimea: Did anyone seriously think that Vladimir Putin would let the main port of Russia’s Black Sea fleet fall into unfriendly hands? Russia will take the Crimea, and the strategic consequences will be nil. We couldn’t have a strategic confrontation if we wanted it. How would we get troops or ships into the Black Sea area in the first place in order to have a confrontation? Perhaps the Belgiums will send in their army instead. I suppose we need to denounce the Russians for violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity.”

He offers a great solution for what we should do, but go read the entire article, to get the full impact.  Bravo, Mr. Goldman, for daring to speak truth to insipid reporting!

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Putin: the geopolitical adventure capitalist

“Still, the influence of all that youthful television-watching is present today. In a book on the inner workings of Obama’s presidential reelection campaign, Politico’s Glenn Thrush reports that although Obama’s biographers “have been more enamored with his complexity,” Obama himself “seeks shallower waters, especially in times of crisis.” When the going gets tough in the White House, Thrush says, the president plays sports and watches ESPN. Indeed, while Obama’s administration was beset by scandals regarding improper IRS investigations and the death of U.S. officials in Benghazi, the New York Times’s Peter Baker reported that Obama “talked longingly of ‘going Bulworth,’ a reference to a little-remembered 1998 Warren Beatty movie about a senator who risked it all to say what he really thought.” Thrush, it seems, was right that movies and TV served as Obama’s version of “comfort food.”” –

– Commentary Magazine – “The Pop Presidency of Barack Obama”, 10-01-13

So, once again the President is nowhere to be seen yesterday, as the situation escalated in Crimea.  Reports surfaced that the National Security Team huddled at the White House for a meeting, but the leading from behind captain of the team skipped the meeting.  Of course, his handlers rushed to assure America and the world, that the President was briefed.

Anyone with some functioning brain cells should have seen Putin’s moves in Crimea coming.  Putin comes from the Cold War era geopolitical school, where he learned from hard school of knocks experiences.  He reads history, he studies maps, he actually takes his leadership responsibilities deadly serious.  Russian influence in Crimea looms vastly important to Russian national security and obviously, he will not cede control of Sevastapol to protestors  or Ukrainian authorities hostile to Russia or blustering Western Neville Chamberlains (thanks to David Duff for bringing up Chamberlain).  They won’t allow a power vacuum to threaten their Black Sea Fleet and beyond that Putin surely possesses some grand strategic visions for Russia and at the moment, who in the West will do more than issue hollow threats?

For a pragmatic view of Ukraine’s crisis, here is David Duff’s, ‘In which I laud, the One and Only Obama’.  The Russians have had their Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for centuries, so let them keep it.  If you want to get your dander up, start paying attention to Russian, Iranian and Chinese military moves in the Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine, anyone)- where they’re creeping up on us.  If the Europeans want to do more about Ukraine, let them muster up more than rhetoric.  The world stage offers  plenty of room from some upstarts to take center stage, since President Obama prefers to loaf in the spectator seats, surreptitiously munching on his chips.  Definitely more concerned about hiding from Michelle’s food police than he is about international crises.

Power vacuums keep expanding and unlike our leader from behind, many of our adversaries don’t wait for polite discussions to fill them.  Rant all you want at Putin, but it’s President Obama and wimpy western resolve that Putin gauged and he sure understands this sort of capitalization.  The cost of acting is minimal and the potential rewards are great, wow, Putin the adventure capitalist …. the world gone mad, I say.

Oh yes, “the past is prologue”.

And, as the world spins closer to chaos, let us remember that oft-quoted sage once more – “I believe it is peace in our time.”  Let’s at least give President Obama credit for surpassing  Henry Kissenger’s  measure of a country’s diplomacy,No country can act wisely simultaneously in every part of the globe at every moment of time.”  President Obama, the inept,  doesn’t act at all….. but Putin the new adventure capitalist takes all the risks.  Don’t worry though, this waffler-in-chief, hiding somewhere in the White House watching ESPN,  can sure stand tough on gutting our military, even though he can’t read a world map and he doesn’t have time for international crises.  Simultaneously, Putin is securing his Black Sea Fleet and Russian influence in Ukraine.

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Flubbering about on the world stage…… again

Busy week in the real world, so here goes with another libertybelle contrarian view.

Paul Rahe, highly respected academic, penned a piece on Putin, “Vladimir Putin: The World’s Greatest Fool”, which I disagree with and where it struck me that in America, this inability to objectively evaluate our own moves and how others around the globe perceive them, permeates the intellectual movers, who influence American foreign policy.  Rahe states:

“After Chechneya came Georgia. Then, Syria. And, of course, now it is the turn of the Ukraine. Do not kid yourselves. The masked gunmen who seized the Parliament building in the Crimea earlier today were not locals. They were Spetznatz — special-purpose forces — dispatched by Moscow to carry out a coup d’etat and prepare the way for Russia’s seizure of that Ukrainian province, and the odds are tolerably good that they will succeed in doing just that. Vladimir Putin knows that words of warning from Barack Obama mean nothing at all.”

All these charges fail to take into account the Russian view on these areas and it pretty much fits the pattern of accusing the Russians of interfering in their neighbors business, while we tirelessly push NATO and western predominance among those very same neighbors.   In Syria, no mention is made of how important Tartus is to the Russians.  Just like in Crimea, well, the Russian Black Sea Fleet resides there, so of course the Russians have a legitimate and vital national security interest in how events play out in Ukraine.  If the Russians rely on hardball tactics, now, that’s a fair charge, but failing to at least acknowledge that from a national security stance  they do have legitimate interests does a real disservice to ever being able to find some common ground when dealing with the Russians.  All this resurrecting Cold War era level rhetoric about Putin being the progeny of the “evil empire” keeps us from realistically viewing events.  The Russian moves make perfect geopolitical sense.  Our own personalizing this about Putin as an evil nemesis, misses the point completely.  We had to know that the Russians would use force to secure their Black Sea Fleet access and assert themselves there.  Turning this into a soap opera rather than a look at the maps and pieces on the board doesn’t help us forge a way forward.  Negotiations, just like real conversations, have got to start by respecting your adversary’s point-of-view and listening to the concerns.  Issuing threats, ultimatums, highly charged rhetoric backs us into a corner from the start.  The Obama administration has no clear objectives, no ability to formulate a coherent policy and plays low-ball politics  – just read Nuland’s leaked comments to see how the Obama administration was trying to dictate which protestors should play a role in the future government in Ukraine.  Putin is behaving like the leader of Russia, while Obama putts one more time.  I respect Putin’s abilities and while I am fully aware how brutally the Russians react, it would behoove us to look at:  USSR in 1989 and Russia today, then imagine if you were responsible for Russian national security planning.  I wish President Obama would put half as much effort into promoting our national security interests as Putin does to promote his country’s interests.  Putin isn’t the problem here – it’s American fecklessness and particularly Obama’s total failure of leadership.  Endless saber-rattling and shouting threats at the Russians won’t get us anywhere and frankly, how embarrassing was the Syria debacle, where even Assad’s kid pegged Obama as weak.  And after that flubbering about, President Obama tossed the reins to Putin anyway.  The US acts like a spoiled brat, constant assertions of moral superiority, temper-tantrums and endless demands (red lines) and it’s way past time to grow up and actually behave with a bit of humility and treat other countries with some respect – not likely to happen with this narcissistic crowd.

I assessed the personalities over a year ago:  “Putin By A Mile”

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In full retreat

After many about faces (lies), the Obama change you can believers march on, white flag waving for the world to see:

“Obama orders Pentagon to prepare for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan”– Washington Post

“Obama Administration Ignores Russian Nuclear Violations” – Washington Free Beacon

“Get real, Hagel tells nation in proposing military cuts” – CNN

“When Failure Is Success”– Victor Davis Hanson

More later……. don’t want to ruin your day 🙂

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If

To the 5 W & 1 H Folks:

The internet is an amazing thing.  Connections, connections, connections.  JK, I’m posting this for a reason and it’s not for credit actually.  I just want this connection out there – and if anyone can come up with an earlier blog post or news report on Ms O’Bagy’s Syrian Emergency Task Force position, please post it.  I wrote my post on September 3, 2013, 8:56 am.  I mentioned my post on The Diplomad 2.0 blog, September 3, 2013m,  10:03am, which certainly gets more traffic than my obscure backwoods blog.  After I posted my comment on Diplomad’s blog other journalists ran with this story.  There’s a lot of ego among you, but very little integrity.

I’ve tried since 1999 to get someone, anyone actually, to take my story, Messages of mhere (located in the archives section)  seriously – so far, no takers.  I followed advice and used pseudonyms in my story. I wrote it with a light touch, but the story itself is the truth.   All these years of attempting to get someone to listen to my story, well, truth, sure seems  a rare commodity.   Most of the people in this story would recognize themselves, if, someone with the right connections investigated this.  It shouldn’t be this hard to get someone to listen to you in America.

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An outsider look at Ukraine

Over the past several days the airwaves have been filled with loud demands that we do more to support the Ukrainian protestors (frequently dubbed a struggle for freedom against the evil Russians).  This reaction comes quite natural to America, with our long Cold War history, but I have some questions about the situation that I haven’t found clear answers to yet.

First, let me say I am weary of the American media latching onto these international crises and presenting everything as a “fight for freedom”, without providing much in the way of historical background information.  It’s very easy to jump onto foreign causes when they are presented as “struggles against Russian oppression” or “fighting against tyranny”, but truthfully the internal politics in these areas usually are fraught with corruption with a capital C, excesses of violence, abuses of power, and  long-held ethnic animosity.  The situation in the Ukraine is no different.  You can go read about the Holodomor, where the Soviets starved millions of Ukrainians to death, to get a taste of the animosity that still ripples below the surface among many ethnic Ukrainians.

In this latest violence, it sure looks like the protestors are the ones who have been on a torching buildings spree in Kiev, not the government.  Not sure how I would feel if protestors in America started setting buildings ablaze, because those 1-percenters with their destruction of other people’s property sure angered me – urinating and defecating anywhere like animals…  Why does no one in the West tell the protestors to quit torching Kiev, yet all you hear about are how the police need to calm down?  I am not condoning police or military forces shooting unarmed civilians, I’m merely asking why our reporting always champions protestors, even when the protestors are setting a city aflame?

The CIA Factbook offers these statistics as to the demographic make-up of present-day Ukraine: “Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8% (2001 census)”  As to the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election, irregularities ran rife, as usual.  International monitors gave varying accounts.  A report by a group of monitors which included Russia, Poland, France, Armenia, Kyrgyzistan and Belarus (Centre for Monitoring Democratic Processes) offered their verdict here.  A Christian Science Monitor explanation of the election can be found here.  Yanukovich won with a less than 50% of the vote, but it seems like he had a good bit of ethnic Ukrainian support or the ethnic Ukrainians didn’t turn out in sizable enough numbers given this huge ethnic Ukrainian numerical advantage. Here’s a NY Times report on the 2010 election, replete with plenty of criticisms – (NY Times story here).  Any theories, facts or information on this numerical question, anyone?

Now, as in all these other hotspots, American politicians like to get on their soapbox and berate the evil Putin for his undo influence in other countries political affairs and in the Ukraine this charge accompanies almost every report in this latest flare-up.  What you don’t hear much about is how American political groups get actively involved in actually managing campaigns (paid political consultants) in many foreign elections – from Israel to the Palestinian Authority to Iraq to Afghanistan to the Ukraine, and so it goes.  Here’s a link to which American political consultants were hired to work for the respective Ukrainian candidates in the 2010 presidential election in the Ukraine.  Now, what this means is American politicians and their cronies pick sides in many foreign elections, their consultants make big bucks organizing campaigns in foreign countries and our “American” foreign policy ends up being as divided as our internal politics due to this partisan-charged environment.  None of the folks in Washington will step back from their partisan talking points and spoon-fed politicized dogma to actually think about America, in the big picture sense – as one country, needing one voice abroad, to promote our national interests.  We can’t even agree on what our own national interests are, yet here we go again trying to jump into other countries internal affairs – half-cocked.  Naturally, John McCain is at the forefront.  Our politicians are just as much trying to influence internal affairs in the Ukraine as the Russians are – let’s at least be honest about that.

And let’s look at the Obama administration flip-flops dealing with foreign hotspots – completely incoherent.  Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Israel – totally embarrassing and colossal failures.  In Syria, Madame Secretary Clinton proclaimed Assad a “reformer”, President Obama declared red lines, and in the end John Kerry and President Obama handed over control of the situation to Putin.  CNN reported: “U.S. talks tough, but options limited in Ukraine”, indicating that even at CNN  the real world seems to be crashing through their  idolization of President Obama as more hype than actual “change you can believe in”.

Before Americans get too fired up by the likes of John McCain with his denunciations of Putin (here’s a pretty typical rant of his), be fully aware that a financial crisis precipitated this latest Ukrainian unrest, when Yanukovich went with a Russian bail-out offer rather than a lesser European offer.  Here’s a quick background on the real source of Ukraine’s continual corruption problem within it’s natural gas and energy industries: “Ukraine’s $19-billion question of debt and corruption”.  So, while McCain is bellowing about sanctions against the Yanukovich government, be aware that what’s really going to be asked of us, to secure  a European-leaning Ukraine, is a huge bail-out for the Ukraine, which is ranked 144th by Transparency International on corruption – tying with countries like the Central African Republic and Iran and scoring worse than Uganda.  The Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe.  If you still feel dismayed at Obama’s bailouts and haven’t had any satisfactory answers as to where all that money went, imagine tossing money into this Ukrainian gambit?

Finally, the Russians have a legitimate interest in the Ukraine based on centuries of ties.  The Russians have based their Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol since the time of Catherine the Great, so it’s not like they just decided to meddle in the Ukraine on a whim.  NATO has pushed toward integrating the Ukraine and Georgia into it’s sphere and there are many Ukrainians who would welcome aligning with Europe.  There are also many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine who want a closer Russian alliance.  The Russians brokered a deal with Yanukovich in 2010, extending the lease for the Black Sea Fleet for 25 years (story here), putting a kibosh on the NATO dream.  As I stated in a post the other day, in real terms, the Russian national security framework shattered with the collapse of the Soviet Union and if you’re Putin standing in Moscow today, his European adversaries are a thousand miles closer – with no natural geographic roadblocks.  Unlike President Obama, I am confident that Vladimir Putin understands military strategy, geopolitics and has a keen grasp of map-reading (remember O and  his 57 states…), so in clear strategic terms, Putin’s moves make perfect sense, while our meandering posturing creates more chaos and international instability.  I’m not for or against either side in the Ukraine.  As an outsider, I’m just trying to make sense out of the chaos and understand what the respective sides are demanding and demolishing.

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Just links

The lack of character and ethical void in the US military: good piece, “A Military that Looks like America”, at the In From the Cold blog.

An older link to a piece in the Strategic Studies, circa 2012, on the lack of clear ethical standards in the US Army:   Finding “The Right Way”: Toward  An Army Institutional Ethic, written by LTC Clark C. Barrett.  This paper offers a history of the Army’s character-building efforts, pitfalls with a written code, along with remedies to those pitfalls.  The missing fact in his paper is that when you start with substandard ingredients (lack of character in civilian society= a character deficit in the recruit pool too), it takes a whole lot of extra-effort to create spectacular dishes.

And you thought the Fairness Doctrine was dead, with the coffin nailed down tight, oops, it’s risen from the dead: from the WSJ, “The FCC Wades Into the Newsroom”.

A NASCAR war on women charge (alternately referred to as Danica Patrick’s driving record sucks). Richard Petty dared to state the obvious truth: “Tony Stewart picks the wrong person to get petty with over Danica Patrick”.  Small town stock car racing is better (trust me it is) than NASCAR and Danica’s already not excelled at Indy racing and now moved to NASCAR, so after this she can go join Sandra Fluke and claim the evil male patriarchy conspired against her.  She has gotten more attention, both press and endorsements, all because of her photogenic looks, while better male drivers struggle to make it in NASCAR.

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