Gladius emailed his Syria predictions. Comments anyone?
BHOzo will claim victory for peace in the Middle East.
> Putin will do the work because the Russians don’t give a hoot about the environment anyway. They will destroy the chemicals some way or other. Or at least some of them.
> Within a year there will be a soviet mech infantry corps in Syria to “protect the workers.”
> Russia will finally have a military post in the Mideast, a warm water port, control of pipelines and a market outlet for its oil and weapons.
> Russia will kill all the rebels it can and there will be no imbedded journalists to witness how it is done.
> BHOzo will claim credit because there will be no US boots on the ground.
> Israel will then be faced with a large Russian force on its border.
> End game: Russia 10; US 1.
6 responses to “Gladius Maximus predicts end game: Russia 10; US 1.”
I have several points I agree with you on and several that I don’t. I agree at the end the Russians win, as they’ve already run laps around this hapless President. I don’t believe the Russians will set up an infantry corps in Syria, but stick to the less costly method of funneling in much smaller groups of Russian military advisers and trainers, bearing much larger caches of weapons to train the Syrian Army to use. The Russians will arm the Syrian Army and whatever Shiite radicals Iran funnels in, but I think the Russians, unlike us, learned from their Afghan debacle and will avoid deploying large Russians combat military units to aid in the fight. I also don’t think the Russians need a large Russian military base inside Syria to exercise control over Assad, as he will stay in line knowing he has steady support from Moscow, as long as he follows their script.
The rest of your predictions seem on target. This feckless leader of ours will claim victory for peace. I don’t believe the Russians will eliminate the vast chemical stockpiles in Syria (or wherever else they’ve been moved again, Iraq perhaps), but merely eliminate some to make it look like they’re living up to this commitment of ridding Assad of his WMD arsenal – a nicely played PR deception is Putin’s forte. The Russians never followed through on any WMD agreement they’ve made without massive cheating, so I can’t see them suddenly turning honest here. Love him or hate him – Putin, he’s sure very smart when it comes to playing the grand strategy…….. wish we had some leaders with his skill, but we’re stuck with this bendable glob of green clay, our Gumby President.
Forgive this comment (I know I rather dislike a comment that exceeds the length of the post the comment directs to).
Far as the Israelis prospects with the Russians go – it should be noted their “national interests” are not ours – and so it might be well to recall that sometime ago the Israelis negotiated with Russia “landing rights” in Azerbaijan. Those landing rights make possible (absent our refueling assistance) a Go-It-Alone Strike on Iran.
Sometimes – or more properly – very often allied nation’s (and in this ongoing instance the example is quite stark) “national interests” among allies cannot so neatly be defined as “aligned” but rather, ‘overlaps exist’ so in the case of Israel’s successful negotiations with Russia, though Israel is “our ally” – Israel took advantage where “we” were unable to provide.
(I may come back to the above – STRATFOR did analysis on it – might have to copy & paste, as I think it was internal.)
Russia will finally have a military post in the Mideast, a warm water port, control of pipelines and a market outlet for its oil and weapons.
The below illustrates what was recognized by our Strategic Studies group in the follow-on to Russia’s Invasion of Georgia  and should add to what I mentioned above, viz Israel’s IDAF having access to Azerbaijani airfields. Unfortunately it also illuminates our recent inability to do “long-haul.”
Russia’s long-term strategic goals included:
Increasing its control of the Caucasus, especially over strategic energy pipelines. If a pro-Russian regime were established in Georgia, it would [bring] the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas pipeline under Moscow’s control. By regime change in Georgia, Moscow is also trying to gain control of the energy and transportation corridor that connects Central Asia and Azerbaijan with the Black Sea and ocean routes overseas—for oil, gas, and other commodities. In 1999, Western companies reached an agreement with Central Asian states to create the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. So far, this corridor has allowed Azerbaijan and partly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, to bypass Russian-controlled pipeline networks and transport its oil from the Caspian Sea basin straight through Georgia and Turkey, without crossing Russian territory. … Russia would clearly like to restore its hegemony over hydrocarbon export routes that would considerably diminish sovereignty and diplomatic freedom of maneuver in these newly independent states.
Russian control over Georgia outflanks Azerbaijan from the West, denying the United States basing and intelligence options there in case of a confrontation … As early as March 2008, as least one of the intelligence services of the Baltic Republics was warning that Russia planned a war against Georgia later that year … But these warnings were not communicated often enough and at a high enough level to attract significant Western attention. In essence, the West and Georgia were talking past each other, with the former taking the long view toward Georgia’s eventual NATO membership and cautioning it not to do anything in the short term to damage that process, and the latter insisting that its sovereignty and territorial integrity were being compromised and warning that it could not stand by while Russia continued a process that amounted to annexation of Georgian territory. Apparently forgotten by the West in its desire to at once reassure and restrain Georgia was any meaningful attempt to deter Russia from further destabilizing actions.
Click to access PUB1069.pdf
“Putin's Visit and Israeli-Russian Relations is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
Thanks Justin! Leave it to George Friedman to remind us of the obvious, but seemingly overlooked strategic aims of Russia in regards to keeping us tangled up in Islamic firestorms – keeping us bogged down and therefore allowing Russia free rein to exert influence in the former Soviet bloc territories. His analysis makes clear why Putin wants to lead Obama into another convoluted mess in Syria. Putin looked like a statesman, while Obama looked like a bumbling clod. And we stay tied down, with no short-term, long-term and definitely no grand strategy – hapless Obama pedaling along with his bike helmet safely strapped on pitted against shirtless Vlad, effortlessly donning that badass persona. Love him or hate him, where demonstrating strength matters, Putin wins -no competition and he must be laughing his butt off dealing with simpering Kerry and whimpering Obama
You didn’t actually need the STRATFOR link LibertyBelle, your “several that I don’t [agree]” was enough.
Ol’ Justin is mainly a ‘background sorta fellow’ – attempting to provide “explication” where perhaps, foundational stuff might lack the leastest bit of mortaring glue-up.
One thing we “might” disagree on is all this stuff (I’m referring to Putin’s, er, maneuverings) being BHOzo’s solely and personally responsible for thing – tho’ I’d reckon BHOzo’s demurral to do the follow-thru which was absolutely essential based on his campaign attacks (at which he’s so far, failed miserably)
Then again, these few years in … especially after Egypt and Libya …
I personally have this tingling at the base of my spine that “somehow” our suppositions and the reliance on drones … well … I’m disquieted.
(I’m reminded [in mind] of Michael Yon’s observation of the Brit’s awarding of medals as they were about to pull out of Afghanistan and the Pashtun asking, “Where are our medals, we gave you a good fight didn’t we?”)
The Russians (Putin) play chess.
America plays at, Dancing With The Stars.
And Putin isn’t at all interested in “It’s Bush’s Fault!” -except in the sense George laid the groundwork.
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