My favorite analogy about geopolitical strategy is one which I don’t remember where it came from or I would attribute it appropriately. There’s a pack of dogs standing around and suddenly one dog steps away from the pack, puts his nose high in the air, ears perked up, and hones his eyes far into the distance, sensing danger. The other dogs continue to amble about unaware of the threat. That dog who sensed danger early is your geopolitical strategist.
Hopefully, there are a lot of US national security dogs who’ve stepped away from the pack and are looking at the internal US political situation, a leader-from-behind CINC totally clueless on geopolitics, an American public distracted by a sideshow presidential election and a US military that has been ruthlessly gutted by President Obama. Let’s hope they are stepping into America’s most determined adversaries’ shoes and gauging our adversaries’ escalating military provocations accurately. If you were going to escalate matters, you would choose a time when America is completely distracted. The polarized political climate leaves America ripe for internal factionalized hostile agitation propaganda efforts and staged riots to divert attention to domestic, rather than foreign issues.
Time to keep scanning the far horizons and staying alert!
The last few months of escalated Russian and Chinese military provocations should have some US national security dogs on alert – things are brewing.