Among the China experts there has been broad consensus that China intends to seize control of Taiwan and to displace US as the world trade leader. For years we’ve been hearing about China’s Belt and Road initiative to develop trade relations in more than 150 countries since 2013. China has been investing heavily in Central and South America (our own hemisphere).
Following on my previous post – the what ifs. China has been working hard to advance its economic influence globally for more than a decade and now is trying to advance its military influence too. Who is going to look like the strong horse, with the Trump administration offering nothing except Trump whining about America being ripped off and making extreme tariff threats, that will decimate the economies of , not only our adversaries, but also our allies?
It’s one thing to try extreme hostile takeovers with companies, but countries don’t react exactly like businesses, because countries have vital national interests like their people’s prosperity and their vital security interests. Most countries will gravitate toward bolstering relations with stronger countries who offer reliability and stability and avoid chaos or unreliable countries.
America’s #1 selling point post-WWII has been we offer stability and reliability, especially with world trade. We secure international shipping and NATO has been vital to that effort, but Trump has attacked NATO repeatedly and there’s a loud MAGA crowd who keep pushing for the US to abandon NATO, our most vital military alliance. Trump constantly threatening NATO weakens America’s position as a reliable security partner, because if our POTUS can turn on the partners of our own most vital military alliance, who won’t he turn on?
America alone isn’t a smart national security path.
On April 2nd Trump launched his “Liberation Day” salvo of unilaterally hitting over 100 countries (many our closest allies) with 10% tariffs, all while whining about American victimhood. MAGA world wallows in American victimhood and yet believes this is being strong… Trump’s tariffs amounts aren’t based on any sort of logical trade imbalance formula – they are based on his whims. MAGA world may believe Trump is invincible or America’s savior, but other countries have their own leaders and their own interests. They will find ways to circumvent and neutralize Trump’s one-man wrecking ball trade war and all Americans will feel that blowback, I expect.
Beijing will look like a more rational actor than Trump’s daily Truth Social crap posts and daily tariff threats. He’s now threatening 100% tariffs on foreign movies and while he fixates only on how things play in his domestic spin war against the liberal media and Dems, other world leaders are watching his behavior and assessing their own national interests and deciding which world leaders are more reliable.
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