This blog post is going to be about politics and it is going to be critical of President Trump’s rush to get a peace deal in the Ukraine War. For those who say, “How could anyone be against a peace deal that stops the killing quickly?” the answer is signing a deal is no indication that either side will abide by this agreement and if past is prologue, especially in Ukraine, there’s nothing in the past to suggest this time will be different. The Ukrainian people still want to fight for their country and are outraged by Russian brutality in this three-year old conflict and Putin has no history of keeping his word in deals. That’s the reality.
So, Trump’s big selling point among his supporters is he’s a great businessman and the master of the deal. He’s been great at selling himself, that’s irrefutable, because he’s faced more negative media coverage and Democrat smear campaigns than you can count and he won, not only the election in November 2024, but also the popular vote. I voted for him, even though all the same concerns about his judgment and character persist. I want him to succeed, especially with securing the border, dealing with the illegal immigration problems, rebuilding our military, and keeping America safe. I want him to succeed on the world stage in foreign policy, because America’s role as a world leader is vital for American national security.
Reality checks, where you pull yourself away from the media drama, for and against Trump, can help sort out where this Ukraine War and this Trump-brokered peace deal are really at. First it’s important to state that Trump’s big boast that he could end this war in 24 hours, if elected was total nonsense, but it’s what is driving the Trump administration haste in negotiating this deal. Getting this deal done fast to bolster Trump’s prestige outweighs every other consideration with the Trump administration. That makes this deal’s priorities more about Trump than about American national security. The hype about the numbers of dead and “stopping the killing” have never been the driving force to stop combatants, if they think they can still field an army and they still are committed to their political aims. Wars are about politics, not the human cost to achieve them.
Trump is selling Russian talking points, down to constantly attacking NATO and blaming Ukraine for starting the war. Putin started this war and it’s disgraceful for Trump to blame Ukraine. The effort to divide NATO was a top Soviet foreign policy aim and it’s a top Putin aim. Trump has bought into that too and while the Democrat “Trump-Russian Collusion” allegations were bogus, Trump respects and admires brutal strongman leaders, because he admires toughness. Trump openly admires Putin and Xi and craves their respect. Just listen to Trump go on and on about how much they respect him to get a feel for what matters to Trump. None of this personality-centric foreign policy is good for American interests abroad. Trump has called Zelensky a dictator and demanded Ukraine hold elections, even though Ukraine was invaded by Russia, is fighting to survive, and has marital law in place due to this wartime footing. At the same time Trump never criticizes Putin’s dictatorial actions and he has praised Xi for his iron control over the Chinese people.
I voted for Trump, despite my concerns about his character issues, but I think his character issues will cause more problems rather than resolve many of the big foreign policy issues. Moral clarity, as the leader of the free world, matters, and for Trump to blame Ukraine for starting this war is appallingly dishonest and false. For Trump to so publicly attack NATO allies emboldens America’s adversaries, who perceive a fractured NATO alliance, where there’s no trust between the Trump administration and our European allies.
Many Trump followers seem perfectly fine with ditching our European allies and abandoning NATO, but I doubt they understand how vital our NATO alliance is to our global security framework. Trump is slashing within the Pentagon at the same time he’s bragging about rebuilding our military. I don’t see setting flames to all our security structures at the same time, without any real plan for what’s replacing these vital pieces being a good plan. Even with this firing top generals, there isn’t any coherent plan for who’s replacing them and Trump makes ad hoc decisions, mostly based on people he saw on TV or who supported him. Most of the best generals aren’t the ones who are in the media constantly. What I see unfolding is a lot of burning things to the ground without a real plan to rebuild anything. The same thing is happening with the DOGE efforts, which are more political theater than a carefully thought out plan.
Trump does not speak with moral clarity and he is deliberately pushing Putin lies about the Ukraine War. If Trump believes these lies, that bodes very poorly for American national security. Putin started this war and could have stopped the war at any time, by withdrawing his forces from Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want to end this war without dismantling Ukraine’s sovereignty. So, along comes Trump, who’s going to work out this peace deal like a businessman.
First, Trump is demanding Ukraine repay US aid to Ukraine, which sends a strong signal to other countries that the US can change the terms of agreements, after the fact. This is a huge win for our adversaries, to be able to tell countries not to trust American aid, because a few years from now they’ll demand you give it back. None of the strings Trump is attaching to this past aid to Ukraine were in the agreements under the Biden administration. Foreign countries aren’t like partisan Americans – they see one America and see America not keeping its word.
Trump wants rights to rare-earth minerals in Ukraine as a payback for US aid to Ukraine. That brings us to this hype about the US controlling mineral rights to some massive mineral reserves in Ukraine. Here again the rush to get a deal will likely lead to a boondoggle, not some huge win for America. The Trump administration and right-wing media have been hyping these massive mineral reserves in Ukraine, but Jim Geraghty, a National Review pundit, who actually travels to check things out himself, went to Ukraine. He has provided some of the best reporting and he linked to an article from S & P Global, a US company that provides analysis and data on investment opportunities. Here’s a S&P Global report on Feb. 13th, Ukraine rare earths potential relies on Soviet assessments, may not be viable :
“The deposits would be difficult to develop. Some are stuck behind battle lines or, in the case of the geological record for one of the sites, require advanced processing technology and a stable energy grid to extract. And the valuation of the deposits is based on decades-old data: No sources contacted by Commodity Insights were aware of any commercial exploration or assessment of those deposits in the post-Soviet period.”
And this:
“Out of six rare earth deposits in Ukraine, only the Novopoltavske field in the Zaporizhzhia region has proven reserves with the license open for nomination. The large phosphate and rare earth deposit requires a $300 million investment, according to “Ukraine: Mining Investment Opportunities,” a report by the Ukrainian Geological Survey and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine.”
The likelihood of US companies investing huge amounts of money to build mining operations in a area fraught with security issues in Russian-controlled territory is slim. Even if this war ends, the likelihood that hostilities will persist is very high, as is the likelihood that both sides will continue fighting. No matter what kind of deal Trump brokers, the odds are that this will go right back to being a frozen conflict. US companies would have a very hard time operating in an area controlled by Russian forces. And on top of that in Trump’s rush to get a deal, at any cost, companies will want up-to-date geological surveys and data before pouring in millions upon millions of dollars.
Many Trump supporters want to believe in Trump’s bold ideas and there’s plenty of right-wing media making money selling Trump euphoria, but while I might waste $49 on a Shark VACMOP based on advertising, when it comes to important things, like national security, I’m much more cautious and look at the history and details carefully. I see no need for a rushed peace deal that is piecemeal and not carefully thought out. It’s apparent that the Trump administration has silenced all dissent within the administration and the VP appears to be the enforcer – of no opposing viewpoints are allowed to be voiced.
The reality is Putin has not kept his word on any agreements and Trump spouting Russian talking points bodes poorly for American national security. There’s this sentiment being boldly spouted among some Trump pundits that we should let the Europeans foot the bill on Ukraine and let them send their military aid – just wash our hands of Ukraine. Well, if the US abandons Ukraine and our European allies, then the US will have lost substantial power as the leader of the free world and if you treat you long-time allies like adversaries and suck up to your Russian adversary, well, there’s an old Soviet era term for that too – DUPE. Trump is setting the stage to become the biggest American dupe in history.
Too many Republican politicians twist themselves into knots to support Trump and not publicly disagree with him. For me, America matters more than any politicians’ feelings and I refuse to go along to get along with any politicians. They’re supposed to be working for we, the American people. I also don’t care if anyone else agrees with me, it’s my opinion this Trump-brokered Ukraine War deal is starting to smell to high heaven. I want more details and more transparency, not spin and bragging. Hard to believe that the Trump rush-rush approach is starting to look as bad as the Biden foot-dragging approach.
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